UFC 77: Hostile Territory- Fight & Betting Line Analysis
by Matt Corenzwit
BetOnFighting.Com Staff Writer

MMA Odds Maker Nick Kalikas and www.BetOnfighting.com have released this weekends Official UFC 77 "Hostile Territory" Odds.

At long last, the UFC is back in action on October 20th, when Anderson Silva will attempt to defend his Middleweight belt in his opponent’s backyard. Also featured is the return of two of the higher profile heavyweights in a slugfest that will have serious title implications. Middleweights dominate the card, but every weight class is amply represented. All in all it promises to be another exciting event, especially considering some of opportunities. It’s time to find the hidden gems!

MAIN CARD

Anderson Silva (-220) Vs. Rich Franklin (+180)

Headlining UFC 77 is a clash between the 185 lb. division’s two brightest stars. Redemption is undoubtedly on the mind of the former champ, Rich “Ace” Franklin, who comes in after derailing the title hopes of Yushin Okami & Jason Macdonald. Reclaiming his belt will not be easy, though, as Anderson “The Spider” Silva has been nothing short of spectacular in his brief UFC career. The upstart Brazilian has finished each of his opponents in short order, including a brutal TKO of Franklin just one year ago.

Underestimating the sheer lethality of Silva’s striking game from any position is a one-way track to finding yourself flattened on the canvas. Franklin learned the hard way just how devastating the champ can be in the clinch. Chris Leben and Nate Marquardt tasted defeat from a distance in the standup, while Travis Lutter was given a steady diet of deadly elbows from Silva on the bottom. There is no easy way to defeat Anderson, who routinely trains with heavier men and is a master of many disciplines. Until succumbing to the Brazilians clinch (and knees), however, there was no clear-cut way to beat the former champ, either.

The best chance Franklin has stems from his wrestling and strength advantage. While certainly capable on the mat, The Spider is far less dangerous overall when on his back and more importantly: he is vulnerable. He has been submitted on several occasions and as recently as the Travis Lutter fight, he has shown a deficiency in his takedown defense. If the pressures of fighting near his hometown in Ohio and facing the very man who stripped him of his belt don’t adversely affect him, Franklin has a great chance. Expect an absolute war this Saturday. If “Ace” can avoid most of the Brazilian’s power shots in the opening rounds, I expect him to batter Silva and establish himself as the physically superior fighter. In a fight that could conceivably go either way, I like the price on Franklin at +180.

Brandon Vera (-180) Vs. Tim Sylvia (+150)

Had this fight happened in March as was originally intended, with Sylvia defending his belt against the streaking Vera, things would be very different. A complacent and plodding behemoth’s HW belt was ripe for the taking. Not many thought that a 43 year old retired 205 lb. fighter would be the man to strip the “Maine-iac” (Sylvia) of his title, but it was going to happen sooner or later. A spectacular striker, wrestler, and grappler, Brandon “The Truth” Vera was on a fast rise to the top prior to contractual disputes and managerial conflicts halted his progress. He has not had a professional MMA bout since his TKO of Frank Mir in November of last year.

--Enter the human element--
A consistently underestimated giant has been awoken, and is 100 % healthy after a successful back surgery this spring. He has a renewed focus and promises to return to the aggressive style that earned him the coveted heavyweight crown on two occasions. Brandon Vera is a multi-talented and speedy (albeit under-sized) upstart who will take some time to shake nearly a year’s worth of ring rust. While it’s entirely possible for Vera to chop Sylvia’s legs down with his Muay-Thai kickboxing background, it’s unlikely for “The Truth” to be able to deal with a tremendous reach and weight disadvantage. As is the case in the main event of UFC 77, this fight really could go either way, and as such, I like the price on Sylvia at +150.

Kalib Starnes (-120) Vs. Alan Belcher (-110)

Continuing the middleweight theme of the fight card are two men who are ready to take the next step towards the upper echelons of the division. Alan Belcher is a banger who, outside of a forgettable performance against Kendall Grove, has shown some terrific ability & a solid finishing prowess. Starnes, of TUF-3 fame, is more of a ground fighter who’s been in the game for several years. He adapts well to his opponents and has improved immensely since he started training with American Top Team.

Belcher’s best chance to win unquestionably is to keep the fight standing and in so doing, find a way to score with some power shots. Easier said than done, to be sure, as was proven when noted knockout artist Chris Leben could not penetrate Starnes’ defense. Kalib will do what it takes to get Alan to the ground, where he will make the most of his considerable grappling expertise/advantage. One of the top bets of the night, expect Starnes to dominate the fight for as long as it lasts.

Stephan Bonnar (-345) Vs. Eric Schafer (+275)

While there may be more intriguing fights on the under card, “The American Psycho” (Bonnar) generally puts on a good show. Best known for his battles with Forrest Griffin, he is a well rounded fighter who lays it all on the line each time he enters the octagon. While he does have the skills to tangle with Eric “Red” Schafer on the mat, he’d be best served by exposing his opponent’s weakness. There’s no secret to Schafer’s game. He’s a handful on the ground, sporting an impressive submission acumen. Unfortunately, his abilities do not extend to the realm of stand-up, where all fights begin. I look for Bonnar to handle everything thrown in his direction, although I’m not thrilled w/his price.

Under Card

Yushin Okami (-240) Vs. Jason MacDonald (+190)

In yet another middleweight tilt, two of the better 185 lb. fighters will do battle to determine who will get closer to a title opportunity. Both Okami & MacDonald saw their impressive streaks halted at the hands of Rich Franklin and are eager to erase that memory. MacDonald is a shaky stand-up fighter with lackluster takedowns, but he is also a terrific submission artist who doesn’t mind fighting from his back. Okami is a calculating fighter with outstanding wrestling & ground’n’pound and is no stranger to submissions.

Although similarly sized, the Japanese fighter has an immense strength advantage over MacDonald. Short of his defeat to Franklin, he has been very effective in sapping the energy from nearly every adversary. His ability to posture from an opponent’s guard and land effective strikes is rivaled by few, and I expect him to control the entire fight from start to finish. A fight that resembles Bonnar-Schafer is priced much more modestly, which is likely due to MacDonald's wins over Herman & Leben. As safe of a bet as there is this Saturday, I am supremely confident in Okami.

Jorge Gurgel (-185) Vs. Alvin Robinson (+155)

Rich Franklin’s training partner & coach, Jorge Gurgel is set to take on up-and-comer Alvin Robinson. Robinson is a ball of energy who displayed some severe rookie jitters when he faced Kenny Florian this summer. For his sake, one would hope that it was due to his lack of experience rather than a lack of ability. He’s got a stern test in front of him, however, in the person of Gurgel. While Robinson’s an aggressive submission artist, Jorge is a superb Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner in his own right. What’s more, Gurgel is a very well rounded veteran with a comparative wealth of experience. In what could be a competitive grappling affair, expect the TUF-2 veteran (Gurgel) to dictate the pace and control his counterpart. The payout on Jorge is relatively safe and worthwhile.

Josh Burkman (-325) Vs. Forrest Petz (+265)

In the evening’s lone welterweight match-up, a pair of UFC vets will be posturing for position in not only the fight, but the deeply-stacked division’s rankings. Both Burkman & Petz press forward for the majority of their fights and neither fighter has any quit in his game. Although riding in on the heels of a decision victory over the game Luigi Fioravanti, Petz will be hard pressed to deal with the wrestling and strength of Burkman. Expect Josh to establish himself early on as the physically superior athlete and get the upstart Petz on his heels (or his back) for as long as the fight lasts. Forrest will battle until the bitter end, but unless he catches Burkman with something early, his UFC win streak will end at 1. The price isn’t terrific on Burkman, but he should take this fight fairly easily.

Jason Black (-340) Vs. Matt Grice (+280)

Sophomore UFC fighters though they each may be, the gap in experience is considerably disparaging. Matt Grice is certainly a force with whom to be reckoned, in the form of a compact, gritty, in-your-face ground’n’pounder, but his strengths as the same as those of Jason Black’s. A longtime Miletich Fighting Systems “elite” fighter, Black is a terrific wrestler with a penchant for submissions. Due to some extreme difficulty in getting down to 155 lbs. in his UFC debut, Black was drained and somewhat beaten before he even stepped into cage. Coupled with the abilities of his then opponent, Thiago Tavares, it was a difficult night for the veteran. If Black’s line dips below -300, he’s worth a play, but unfortunately for the bettor: the odds-makers got this one right!

Demian Maia (-210) Vs. Ryan Jensen (+170)

After opening close to even money, the highly decorated grappler, Maia, has been hammered by the wagering public thus far. While I’m sure Jensen learned a lot in his recent loss (and UFC debut) to the superb Thales Leites, I’m not sure if he can avoid the same fate. Jensen came out very wildly in his first dance in the octagon, catching most observers by surprise (most notably Leites, himself!). He looked confident and competent, but when Leites got his bearings, it was over in a matter of moments as he secured an armbar in the opening stanza. Maia will likely take a few moments to get acclimated to the UFC, as most typically struggle to do in their inaugural appearances. Jensen will definitely try to keep the fight standing. As the saying goes: “The vast majority of MMA fights start standing and end on the ground.” If and when it does, Jensen will learn first hand just how dangerous Maia can be. All things considered, it can be argued that Jensen is worth a shot at the near 2:1 payout, but I’m sticking with Maia via submission.

--Please bet responsibly! Enjoy the Fights!
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