After
a dismal set of picks from UFC 81, I am going to try and redeem myself at
UFC 82. I
went 3-6 on my picks for UFC 81. Brutal.
I am so hyped for the
main event this Saturday, plus the overall card looks good. The
decision to put Arlovski, Sanchez, and Koscheck in prelim fights is a
big question to many, but I think it makes sense (except maybe
Koscheck).
Arlovski
is fighting his last fight on his current contract against a lay-n-pray wrestler.
He has been overly cautious in his last couple of fights,
being bumped down to a prelim may light a fire underneath him.
Can you imagine if he gets that fire back? Arlovski vs. Noguiera
anyone?
Diego
Sanchez is coming
off 2 consecutive loses and is facing a UFC newcomer. Yeah, he
probably deserves taking a prelim spot to Jon Fitch’s 7-fight
UFC winning streak on the main card.
Now, Koshceck I think
deserves a main card spot. His last fight was against GSP who used
Koscheck as a spring board to get back to title contention. Koscheck
was not humiliated in the fight and was able to hold on to make it to
a decision. His opponent Dustin Hazelett is a hometown favorite. This
fight deserves be a prelim, but that's just my opinion.
Onto my picks and
analysis:
Under
Card
John Halverson vs.
Jorge Gurgel: My first question is how does Gurgel keep getting
fights? Come on, the guy is 2-2 and one of his wins was a decision
win over Danny Abbadi (no fighter bashing intended). In his last
fight, he was dominated at his own game by Alvin Robinson. One thing
I will guarantee in this fight is that we will see more of Halverson
than we did in his previous UFC fight where he lost in 19 seconds to
Roger Huerta. Halverson by Decision then the UFC
should send Gurgel packing.
Diego Sanchez vs.
David Bielkheden: Sanchez vs. who? Bielkheden is from Sweden but
is fighting out of Brazil. He is a member of a great force in the
world of MMA known as BTT. Check out this video
of his highlights. This is not going to be an easy fight for Diego to
break his losing streak. Hopefully this fight makes it to the main card,
because I see a three round war. If I were putting money down on this
fight, I would definitely throw some down on Bielkheden as the odds
put him around +325! Diego Sanchez by Decision
setting up a rubber match between him and Koscheck to headline a
future UFC Fight Night.
Josh Koscheck vs.
Dustin Hazelett: As abrasive as Koscheck’s personality is,
I like his style. I love watching his takedowns. Many people
disagree, but I have him ranked over Matt Hughes. Koscheck continues
to improve, but needs to not forget about his base. He was completely
out-wrestled by GSP because he focused so much of his training on his
stand-up. Hazelett is a long and lean WW, but that won’t
prove to be an issue for Kos, as he trains with Jon Fitch at AKA. Koscheck by TKO round 2 setting up the aforementioned rubber
match with Sanchez.
Luigi Fioravanti vs.
Luke Cummo: Cummo is a strange dude. He drinks his own urine! He
claims it's good for you, but I just can’t imagine that
to be true. Urine flushes your kidneys of toxins in your body. It is
waste. Anyway, Cummo by Submission in the first round.
Andrei
Arlovski vs.
Jake O’Brien: I am hoping for a return of the old Arlovski.
If he comes back covered in hair, even better! This is Arlovski’s
last fight on his contract and it looks like the UFC is trying to
either light a flame beneath him or send him out of the UFC with a
disappointing loss. Either could happen here because O’Brien
has lay-n-prayed his way to victory in the past and boasts an
undefeated 10-0 record, including an upset of Heath Herring in his last fight. It has been a long time since O’Brien stepped in
the Octagon, his mma career nearly ended by
“stingers” which is a nerve injury in the spine. O’Brien
had a titanium rod implanted in his neck and cadaver discs in his
spine. How will this affect his fight career? Doctors are optimistic,
but I am not. I am taking Arlovski by KO in the second round
and a return of the Pit Bull.
Main
Card
Jon Fitch vs. Chris
Wilson: Wilson stands in the way of Fitch setting a UFC record 8 straight
Octagon wins (excluding Royce Gracie’s
unprecedented run when the UFC was in tournament format.) This fight was originally
scheduled to be Fitch vs. Gono, but when Gono was forced to pull out with a hand
injury Wilson, a
member or Team Quest, stepped up. Wilson is an impressive 13-3 and is
a well rounded fighter (great odds for those who want to place some
cash down.) If Fitch can keep focused he will win this fight and
should be in place for a shot at the title. Fitch by Decision.
Yushin Okami vs.
Evan Tanner: The return of Evan Tanner. Tanner hit a tough time
in his life and chronicled all of it online. Just check out his
Myspace
page. For Tanner’s return, the UFC apparently
had trouble finding an opponent for Tanner, but Okami stepped up.
Yushin Okami is a huge challenge for Tanner in his return.
Okami is 5-1 in the UFC. His only loss came by decision to Rich
Franklin who he nearly finished. With a win here, I think Okami gets
a shot at the winner of the night’s main event for the MW
title. Yushin Okami by Decision.
Chris Leben vs.
Alessio Sakara: I am not happy that this fight is on the main
card over some of the previous mentioned fights on the under card.
Sakara is making his MW debut. Both fighters are coming off wins.
Leben’s conditioning always seems to be a concern, but I don’t
see this fight going past the first round. Leben wins with the
knockout of the night.
Heath Herring vs.
Cheick Kongo: I believe that Kongo may be slightly over rated. He
defeated Cro Cop, but Cro Cop was admittedly in a career “crisis.” When Kongo
fought Carmelo Marrero, his ground game (or lack there of) was exposed as was
his takedown defense. Since that
time though, Kongo has been training with Quinton Jackson and Michael
Bisping. One can only imagine his ground game and takedown defense
has improved. Herring made a huge mistake in his last fight. He had
Noguiera out but opted to stand the fight back up. Herring is very
experienced and seems to have refocused after losing for the third
time to Minotauro. I think Herring will take Kongo down and win
this fight by TKO in the first round.
Anderson
Silva vs.
Dan Henderson: This is what the main event of a UFC pay per view
should look like. Anderson Silva seems to be running through the MW
division without any road blocks. That is until Dan Henderson agreed
to drop to 185.
What I love about this
fight is that they are both so well rounded. Anderson Silva is a BJJ
black belt and can hold his own on the ground but is known for his
stand-up. Dan Henderson KOs include Wanderlei Silva but he is know
for his Olympic caliber Greco-Roman wrestling.
Surprisingly Dan
Henderson is actually slower and his cardio suffers when he fights at
185. If Hendo wants to be the undisputed MW champion, he needs to get
Silva to the ground and give a ground-n-pound clinic.
Anderson Silva needs to
stick to his game, he can win this fight if he keeps his distance
and lands accurate strikes. The clinch game here is one element that
makes things interesting. Silva uses a Muay Thai clinch while
Henderson uses a Greco-Roman clinch. Whose clinch game is stronger?
My pick is Anderson
Silva by TKO in the second round making all of us just say, wow! Who
can beat this guy?
Franky's
UFC 82 Picks