UFC Odds at the MMA Superpage

Franky's UFC 83 Fight by Fight
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While I get excited for every fight that GSP is part of, the rest of the card for UFC 83 is lackluster, especially for their first event in MMA crazed Canada. I will keep my hopes up, though, as often when a card is disappointing on paper, it turns out to be a great night of fights.

It seems that the UFC has decided to increase the number of fights on a fight card. Typically a 9 fight affair, the next 2 cards (UFC 83 and 84) boast 11 fights each, which is great news. Now they just need to increase the number of fights that are guaranteed to air on the PPV.

On to my analysis and picks:

The Undercard

Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs. Jonathan Goulet: Goulet is on this card to play to the Canadian fans. In my opinion he has proven that he can’t measure up to the competition in the UFC welterweight division. He is 3-3, with 2 of his wins coming against former TUF competitors. Hironaka has lost 2 of his 3 fights in the UFC, but those losses came against top WW contenders Thiago Alves and Jon Fitch. This is probably a last chance in the UFC for both of these fighters. My pick: Hironaka by Decision.

Brad Morris vs. Cain Velasquez: This is exactly what the UFC needs: two up-and-coming heavyweights with a lot of potential. The HW division is looking dreadfully thin right now with the departure of Sylvia, Cro Cop, and Couture. Morris is an Australian heavyweight with a 10-2 record. “Sugar” Cain Velasquez trains out of AKA with the likes of Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, and Mike Swick. Velasquez was an All-American wrestler out of Arizona State and has been touted by Jon Fitch as “the biggest and baddest heavyweight you guys have ever seen.” With only 2 fights under his belt, Velasquez is the less experienced fighter, but I think his wrestling will prove to be too much for Morris. I hope this fight makes it to the air so that these guys’ names get out. My pick: Velasquez by Decision.

Rich Clementi vs. Sam Stout: As of November 2007, Team Tompkins, which Stout was a part of, folded into Xtreme Couture. Now, Stout trains out of Las Vegas with Xtreme Couture. He is coming off a decision win over Per Eklund. Rich Clementi earned a huge validation with a submission win over Melvin Guillard. I see both fighters throwing some leather before Clementi tries to take this fight down. This is where training at Xtreme Couture will really help Stout. Stout will keep this fight on the feet and pick Clementi apart. My pick: Stout by Decision.

Ed Herman vs. Demian Maia: Maia is a very accomplished grappler and BJJ artist. in his lone UFC fight, he submitted Ryan Jensen. He has also been training extensively in Muay Thai. Ed Herman is a TUF alumni that trains with Team Quest. Herman was impressive in his last fight where he got the KO over Joe Doerksen. Herman’s cardio has always been in question and this fight will be fought on the ground where I think Maia will show some strong BJJ. My pick: Maia by Submission.

Jason Day vs. Alan Belcher: I don’t know a lot about Day. He is another Canadian fighter and is making his UFC debut. In his last fight he took a split decision win over David Loiseau. Alan Belcher showed some great Muay Thai in his last fight against Starnes. Belcher does need a new nickname though. “The Talent?” Come on…. My pick: Belcher by TKO.

Joe Doerksen vs. Jason MacDonald: A true showcase of Canadian talent. I know MacDonald was not happy about his opponent considering he already holds an RNC victory over him. I don’t see this fight being much different. My pick: MacDonald by Submission.

The Maincard

Mark Bocek vs. Mac Danzig: The only TUF winner to lose his UFC debut (not counting the finale of the show) was Joe Stevenson. I don’t think Danzig is going to follow in his footsteps. Mac Danzig is by far the more experienced fighter and more well-rounded also. On his feet, Danzig has a big advantage, as Bocek is mainly a wrestler. Bocek will try and take this fight down but will find that Danzig holds an advantage there as well. My pick: Danzig by TKO.

Charles McCarthy vs. Michael Bisping: I think Bisping dropping to MW is an intelligent move, he was simply too small at 205. I don’t think however, that he will be a dominating middleweight. For McCarthy, this fight is a definite step-up in competition. I really think this is a gimme fight for Bisping. Do you think the UFC wants him to lose his MW debut? I doubt it. My pick: Bisping by TKO.

Nate Quarry vs. Kalib Starnes: Got to pick the underdog somewhere on the card right? Nate Quarry is fighting in just his second fight back from a serious surgery to repair a degenerative disc condition in his back. I think it is absolutely amazing that he has even been able to train let alone step inside the Octagon again, but I worry for his safety. Even with his KO win over Pete Sell at Fight Night, he didn’t look great. He lost the first two rounds, and had no choice but to swing for the fences in the third. My pick: Starnes by Decision.

Travis Lutter vs. Rich Franklin: Where does Rich Franklin go? He can’t get the middleweight title back, so does he stay in the division and be a gatekeeper for a title shot at Anderson Silva? That is what this fight appears to be. Travis Lutter made Anderson Silva look beatable, but ended up getting submitted. Since then, Lutter has not fought. Rich Franklin is coming off his second loss to Silva, but I have to question his hunger anymore, he knows that he can’t beat Silva. I hope that does not spell the end of him. I think Franklin will win this fight setting up a MW #1 contender fight with either Dan Henderson or Nate Marquardt. My pick: Franklin by TKO.

Matt Serra vs. Georges St-Pierre: Can lightning strike twice? It has been just over one year since possibly the biggest upset in MMA history when Matt Serra scored a TKO victory over reigning champion Georges St-Pierre. It was shocking to say the least.

After that fight many questioned Georges St-Pierre’s mental toughness. In his Octagon return at UFC 74 against Josh Koscheck, GSP silenced many of those doubters scoring a unanimous decision. Then, when Matt Serra was forced to withdraw from his title fight with Matt Hughes, St-Pierre stepped up with 30 days notice and dominated the best welterweight in UFC history.

In those same 12 months since winning the welterweight title, Matt Serra has yet to step back inside the Octagon. A herniated disc, the injury Serra suffered in late November, is not a minor injury. Serra had better be at 100% while facing this GSP or it will be a short fight.

Matt Serra is going to come out quickly as the aggressor trying for a quick KO finish again. The problem is that GSP will be ready for it. St-Pierre will take Serra down and pound on him for the first round. When the second round starts, Serra will be tired and beat-up already. St-Pierre will hurt him standing then take him down and show us the best ground-n-pound that we have seen. My pick: St-Pierre by TKO.