UFC
85 Analysis
by Franky Redzepi
Thiago "Pitbull" Alves
vs. Matt Hughes:
UFC 85: Bedlam finally
has a set main event. Originally it was Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
vs. "The Iceman" Chuck Liddell,
but "Shogun" had
to pull out due to a knee injury. Then we were set for a showdown between
Rashad Evans and Liddell, but an injury forced Liddell off. Now former
UFC Welterweight Champ Matt Hughes (-200)
will take on Thiago Alves (+160), who is coming of a knockout of top
contender Karo Parisyan. Hughes really
hasn't
looked
good in a long time, and Thiago has looked pretty dominant since his
loss to Jon Fitch. When this fight was first put together, I thought
it would be an easy win for Alves . When you look at past fights though,
it really isn't easy to pick a clear winner in this one. Hughes has had
some tough losses lately, but they've only been to GSP-
it isn't easy to look good against GSP. This is a very close fight and
I think the
odds are right where they should be.
The one fight that
stuck out to me in breaking this down is Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves.
Alves did hurt Fitch early, but after that he was put
on his back over and over again.  Alves
didn't have much of an answer for Fitch's takedowns. He couldn't defend
them, and he also couldn't
threaten off his back. Fitch is one of the top guys in the division so
it isn't a bad loss, but I don't think his wrestling is on par with Hughes'.
Fitch was never really a great college wrestler, and he hasn't overly
impressed me with his wrestling in MMA. Fitch is a great fighter, but
I do think his wrestling has been a bit overrated. I think if Fitch can
take Alves down frequently, then so can Hughes. That fight between Fitch
and Alves was pretty long ago, so it might not mean much today, but there
are other examples of Alves showing a weak takedown defense game. Another
example being Alves' fight against Parisyan. Parisyan is much more of
an upper body clinch takedown artist compared to his leg takedowns, but
Karo was still able to take Alves down easily with a leg attack. Alves
won that fight against Parisyan so he can obviously pull it off against
Hughes, but Alves' weakness in takedown defense plays into Hughes' game.
Thiago Alves has
a very, very big striking advantage. If Hughes plans on taking weak
shots like he did against GSP, he'll probably be met with
a nice knee to the face. Hughes can't try and "display" his
boxing skills against Alves, if he does he will get knocked out despite
his good chin. When Hughes goes for takedowns he must commit 100%, they
can't be half-hearted attempts. Hughes is in danger of losing the fight
every second he is on his feet. Hughes also can't mess around in the
clinch with Alves too long. If they clinch, Hughes needs to go for takedowns
as fast as possible. We saw what happened to Karo when he messed around
in the clinch with Thiago for too long, Hughes doesn't want that to happen.
Hughes never really bothered to defend any kicks GSP threw, if he does
that against Alves it will be bad news. Alves probably has the best kicking
game in MMA. Hughes can't let Thiago get into his kicking game. If Hughes
wants to win, he should never allow Alves enough distance to throw those
kicks. Matt needs to be in Thiago's face all night long, he needs to
put Thiago on his back.
Matt hasn't looked
dominant in a long time, but this is a fight where he can be dominate
if he fights the right fight. You kind of have to
wonder how much Hughes wants it though. Constant talk of retirement and
all that makes you question his will a bit, although I think he'll be
confident in this fight. He was in Spencer Fisher's corner when Spencer
beat Thiago , so I think he feels he might be able to pull something
off. That probably isn't thing to look at when breaking the fight down,
but
it does give him some confidence. I think Hughes wants to prove he's
still in it, he still wants to be considered one of the best .Thiago
has shown one glaring hole in his MMA game, and that's his takedown
defense
in my mind. Hughes is a dominate wrestler than can expose that type of
weakness, which I think he will. I don't see Hughes stopping Thiago,
but I do see Hughes controlling the fight like he did against Lytle.
Thiago
is a beast, but this fight doesn't favor him stylistically.
Matt Hughes
wins by Unanimous Decision. (top)
Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" Davis vs. Mike "Quick" Swick:
 Marcus
Davis (-115)
will face his toughest test yet when he faces off against Mike Swick
(-115) at UFC 85. Davis has been on a knockout spree in England and
has become a favorite over there because of it. Most people thought he
wasn't fighting the best competition, and that might be true, but he is
definitely taking a step up now. Mike Swick is coming off a very lackluster
debut in the Welterweight Division against Josh Burkman, but he had a very
solid career at Middleweight. Swick is one of the quicker guys in the division
and can land fight ending combinations in seconds. Swick's performance
against Burkman makes me worry for his chances against Davis though. Swick
seemed afraid to engage a guy who was supposed to be below him in the striking
game. Swick was worried about takedowns, which is unlikely against Davis,
but he still didn't use his striking and reach advantage to its fullest.
This is a big fight for both guys and has potential to be a very exciting
striking battle.
If it does turn into
a striking battle, Swick will lose. Marcus has a pretty clear boxing
and power advantage over Swick. Marcus Davis might
be the best boxer in his division, and maybe even in MMA. If Swick wants
to fight on his feet he needs to explode with quick combinations and then
move away from Davis. Swick was last knocked out against Chris Leben, and
he was winning that fight until he got caught. I could see something similar
happening in this fight, except Marcus is a much more technical striker
than Leben so I'm not sure he would let Swick score on the feet so much.
Swick needs to try and use his reach to keep Davis at bay if he wants to
win a striking battle. Swick should try to use a kicking game if he keeps
it standing. He has a nice headkick and Liaudin was able to land it on
Davis. I just don't see Swick being effective on the feet though. Davis
is too smart of a striker to let someone else control the tempo in a striking
battle, if anyone is controlling the fight on the feet it will be Davis.
Swick has the reach but I don't see him being able to effectively use
it. It
might be in Swick's best interest to take this fight down to the ground
and testing out Davis' ground game.
Swick trains with good
wrestlers like Fitch and Koscheck so you have to think he has somewhat
of a wrestling game. Swick should have the ground
game advantage, but he needs to take Davis down to use it. Swick is coming
down from 185 pounds to fight at 170 pounds, but he still looked skinny
and weak against Burkman. I see Davis being the stronger and more physical
fighter Saturday night which means Swick should struggle to get Davis down.
This is just a bad fight for Swick in every way possibly. The best part
of Swick's game is his striking, and Davis is just better there, in my
mind. I'd love to see Swick win because hearing Davis constantly remind
us that he hits harder than heavyweights is getting old, but I see him
winning this fight. I see Davis hurting Swick early in the fight and finishing
it soon after. This is a step up in competition for Davis, but the matchup
favors him. Someone who is mostly a striker will usually lose to a better
striker. Lets see Davis fight a good wrestler in his next fight to see
how good he really is.
Marcus Davis
wins by First Round KO. (top)
Brandon "The Truth" Vera
vs. Fabricio Werdum:
This fight will most
likely decide who will fight for the UFC Heavyweight Title after Nogueira
and Mir face off. Vera (-185)
is coming off a lackluster decision loss to Tim Sylvia, but he proved
he could hold his own against
the bigger heavyweights. Everyone always says Vera is too small for the
heavyweights, and he probably would be better off fighting at Light Heavyweight,
but he's had a good run at Heavyweight so far. Werdum (+155) is coming
off an "upset" win
against Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga, which was also in England. Many
people considered that fight an upset, but it went exactly as I thought
it would go. Werdum is a very under-appreciated Heavyweight and has only
lost to the elite in the division. Vera has never fought an elite Heavyweight
grappler like Werdum, so it will be interesting to see how he performs
against Werdum.
Vera will probably have the striking advantage, but Werdum has lasted against
guys like Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Kharitonov,  so
I don't think Werdum will be overly concerned with Vera's standup game.
Werdum's standup isn't
terrible, and we saw what he did to Gonzaga with his knees last time out.
Mir is fighting Nogueira, but it should've been this fight to decide Nogueira's
next opponent.
I think this fight
comes down to one thing. Werdum can stand with Vera, but I'm not so sure
Vera wants to mess around on the ground with Werdum.
Vera does have a good BJJ game, but Werdum is on a totally different level.
We really haven't seen much of Vera's submission game besides his guillotine
win over Assuerio Silva, and Silva basically gave him that guillotine.
Werdum will also be the bigger guy, so if he gets on top of Vera it'll
be bad news. Having a 240 pound guy on top of you with world class BJJ
is never a good situation in the world of MMA. Werdum is good at closing
the
distance when he decides to explode with his hands and throw combinations.
His hands are a decoy, they might not have a lot of power but delivering
power isn't his plan really. Werdum just wants to get close so he can take
you down. I can see Werdum bullying Vera against the cage and landing on
top sooner or later. Vera has proven he can hang with top heavyweights,
but he hasn't proven he can beat them yet.
Vera needs to keep
this fight standing, that's pretty obvious. The best part of Vera's striking
game are his kicks, and if he kicks he's putting
himself in danger of being taken down. Gonzaga landed a lot of devastating
kicks on Werdum, but Werdum lasted. I can see Werdum staying competitive
with Vera in a battle of hand striking. I don't see Vera finishing Werdum
even if he does keep the fight standing. I believe Vera can only hope for
a decision and nothing else. I just can't see Werdum not getting in a position
he likes throughout the whole fight though. Werdum will be able to put
Vera in a bad situation, and I think he can keep that position when he
gets it. That's how I see the fight going. Werdum will put Vera on his
back and get some near submissions, but Vera will be able to fight them
off.
Werdum won't get the finish, but he'll be able to control the fight and
dominate on the ground throughout the entire match. Vera will show us again
that he can hang with the best, but he can't beat the best at Heavyweight.
If Vera does lose this fight, which I think he will, he should check out
the Light Heavyweight scene. I see a Nogueira and Werdum rematch in the
future.
Fabricio Werdum
wins by Unanimous Decision. (top)
Martin "The Hitman" Kampmann vs. Jorge "El Conquistador" Rivera:
This fight has potential
to be very exciting and I see it getting at least one of the fight bonus
awards. Kampmann (-260)
has been out of action for a long time due to some injury issues. We
last
saw Kampmann pull off a very slick
side choke submission victory over Drew McFedries, which was over a year
ago. We last saw Rivera (+200) absolutely destroy Kendall Grove, which
was also in England. Many people didn't give Rivera a chance in that
fight,
although
I was one of the few who picked him to actually beat Kendall. Rivera has
been knocked out a few times and has been labeled as someone who has a
weak chin. I don't buy the weak chin thing at all. Terry Martin and Chris
Leben aren't guys who have pillows for hands. Both of those guys are
two of the
harder punchers in the Middleweight Division, so getting put down by those
guys isn't terrible. Martin actually broke Rivera's jaw in half... there
really isn't much someone can do about that. People seem to forget that
Rivera lasted pretty long against both Rich Franklin and Anderson
Silva.
Everyone seems to think this is an easy fight for Kampmann, and I just
don't see it that way.
Both of these guys
are strikers. I really don't see either guy having much of an advantage
in other areas. I do know that Rivera will be the
bigger guy, and I also know that Rivera hasn't been out of action for over
a year. Kampmann is a pretty small guy for his weight class, and I think
Rivera can take advantage of that. Look at the pressure Rivera put on Grove,
he smothered him, giving Grove no chance. I see Rivera doing the same thing
to Kampmann. Just applying pressure the whole time and overpowering Kampmann
all along. I don't see Kampmann knocking Rivera out, honestly. Kampmann
is a good striker but he doesn't seem to have much power. McFedries walked
right though Kampmann's strikes like they were nothing, and Kampmann was
forced to take McFedries down. I don't think Rivera will do that exactly,
but I do think his chin is good enough to take Kampmann's strikes. Kampmann,
in my opinion, has a better chance of submitting Rivera than he has of
knocking him out. Kampmann is a good fighter, but I really don't understand
why everyone is picking him so easily in this one. Does he really have
any clear advantage in this one? If he does, I can't see it.
I see Rivera's size
and strength becoming a factor in the fight. After seeing Rivera manhandle
Grove against the cage I have to give him that
advantage over Kampmann. Rivera has openly said he only has a few fights
left in MMA, which I think that has motivated him in some weird way. A
year long layoff due to injury is a long time to be out of the fight game.
It isn't like Kampmann has been training that whole time, he had serious
injuries to attend to. I'm not so sure he will be completely the same come
fight time. I see Rivera winning a very decisive decision in this fight.
I don't see Kampmann being so much better in any area of the game. I mean...is
Kampmann a better striker than Franklin? Does Kampmann hit harder than
Franklin? I don't think so, and Rivera did more than hold his own in a
striking battle against Franklin. It won't be Kampmann blow out like so
many people think it will be. Rivera will prove a lot of people wrong in
this fight, just as he did in his destruction of Kendall Grove.
Jorge Rivera
wins by Unanimous Decision. (top)
Thales Leites vs. Nate "The Great" Marquardt:
Another Middleweight
bout will take place at UFC 85, because we all know the UFC badly needs
some contenders in that weight class.  This
is the hardest fight to call in my opinion. This fight was supposed to
happen already,
but injuries pushed it back a bit and now it's on. I'm glad it's happening
because, this is a very good, technical fight between two top contenders.
We last saw Leites submit Ryan Jensen at UFC 74 with a slick arm-bar, and
he did it after being hurt with a punch. This guy's ground game is no joke.
We last saw Marquardt (-165) at UFC 81 where he submitted veteran Jeremy
Horn with a brutal guillotine choke. Both these guys have good ground
games,
but Leites definitely has the edge. Marquardt has fought people with better
ground games before and came out successful, so it will be interesting
to see what Leites (+135)
has for him. Lister dominated Marquardt when they had their grappling match,
and Marquardt returned the favor in MMA.
I
do believe
Leites is a better than Lister at the MMA game though.
Leites has decent standup,
but he has the tendency to get caught and dropped a lot. Marquardt was
able to beat-up Lister on his feet when they fought,
and he completely neutralized Lister's ground game. He wouldn't mess around
in Lister's guard too much and just fought a smart fight getting the decision
win. I could see Marquardt doing the same to Leites, but I don't think
he'll be as dominant over him. Marquardt has better striking and better
wrestling,
so I believe Marquardt will control where the fight is fought for the majority
of the time. Thales will be forced to stand with Marquardt, and that won't
be good for Leites. I see Leites being dropped again and again, but I don't
see Marquardt following him down to the ground to go for the kill. Messing
around in an opponents strength is never a smart thing to do. I don't think
Leites has the skills in his striking game to win a striking battle against
Marquardt. This means he will have to take Marquardt down, and I don't
see that happening much in this fight.
Nate Marquardt
wins by Unanimous Decision. (top)
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