Franky’s
Fight by Fight
UFC Fight Night Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon
by Dave
Franklin
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I
am never one to pass up on a free night of fights, although I often don’t
get hyped up over the card. This particular Fight Night on Spike has me just
as
pumped as many of the PPV cards. We get 3 hours of fights and the 5 fights
promised to air are all main card PPV worthy! There are 12 fights overall.
A glance of the under card reveals how deep the event truly is, as many of
those fights could easily have earned a main card billing.
It’s
going to be a great night of fights and to follow it up? The premiere of
TUF 7 with Quinton Jackson and Forest Griffin as coaches with 32 fighters
battling for 16 spots in the house.
Anthony
Johnson vs. Tommy Speer: Johnson is a long welterweight at 6’2.
His last fight in the UFC against Rich Clementi he took on very short notice,
they even fought at a catch-weight above the 170 lbs. welterweight limit. Tommy
Speer has the potential to be the next Matt Hughes. I was surprised to see
him make it to the finals of TUF 6. He is strong, a good wrestler, has “farm
boy” power and is full of heart. I see Speer taking Johnson down over
and over, delivering ground-and-pound for three rounds on the way to a decision. Speer by decision.
Roman
Mitchyan vs. George Sotiropoulos: This is going to be a technical
fight. Mitchyan is a wrestling and judo fighter that trains with welterweight
standout
Karo Parisyan. George (I am not going to continue to write out his last name)
is a BJJ expert who trains with welterweight champion Matt Serra. Mitchyan
was forced to leave TUF 6 quickly after injuring his elbow. His determination
earned him a fight at the TUF 6 finale where he proved that he belonged on
the show after dispatching Dorian Price in 23 seconds. I hope this fight
makes the show. I think Mitchyan is going to take this fight in a close decision
after fending of George’s submissions setting up a match with TUF 6
runner up Tommy Speer. Mitchyan by decision.
Clay
Guida vs. Samy Schiavo: Guida is a great competitor and a talented fighter but
has really struggled in the UFC winning only 2 of his 5 fights. In his
last fight he was dominating Roger Huerta for 2 rounds before being caught
with a knee then being submitted by RNC. Schiavo is a French fighter and
is making his UFC debut and, unfortunately, that is really all I know about
him. Clay Guida is a cardio machine but seems to lack finishing skills. I
think this fight is a gimme for Guida. I see Guida pushing the pace and finding
a submission finish in the second round against a tired Schiavo. Guida by
submission.
Jeff
Cox vs. Manny Gamburyan: Gamburyan, the TUF 5 runner up. It kind
of sucks that the guy he defeated in the semi-finals of TUF 5 is in the
main event
while he is on the under card. Should he get another shot at Nate Diaz after
his shoulder injury in the bout? First he needs to get through Jeff Cox.
Cox, standing 6’4, is fighting in just his second UFC bout. His first
fight against Gleison Tibau ended badly for him. The Anvil is tough fighter
with a very similar style to his cousin Karo Parisyan. Gamburyan is also
13 years the minor of Cox. Manny is going to come out and take Cox down,
possibly with a throw (wouldn’t that be fun to watch? A 5’5 fighter
throwing a 6’4 fighter?) and finish the fight by submission in the
first round. Gamburyan by submission.
Marcus
Aurelio vs. Ryan Roberts: Aurelio has gotten off to a bit of a slow
start in the UFC. Aurelio holds a submission win over top-ranked lightweight
Takanori Gomi. Maximus very well maybe near the top of this weight class.
Roberts is taking this fight on short notice and not much is known about
him. Aurelio is definitely a huge step-up in opponents for Roberts. This
fight is going to be Aurelio’s UFC coming out. I think that he has
made his adjustments to the cage; he trains with a great team at American
Top Team, and is ready to make a splash in a stacked division. Aurelio
by submission.
Josh
Neer Vs. Din Thomas: Din Thomas looked to be making a stir in the lightweight
division returning to the Octagon from TUF 4. After losing in the semi-finals
to welterweight Chris Lytle, Thomas dropped to lightweight to fight Rich
Clementi at the finale. Thomas hit a small bump in the road when he fought
Kenny Florian and his blew his knee out. Josh Neer has been absent from the
Octagon since his loss to Nick Diaz in August 2006. I am sure Din has healed
and is ready to come back and push for a rematch with Kenny Florian. Thomas
by decision.
Gray
Maynard vs. Frank Edgar: I love this fight. Gray Maynard brings hustle to his game.
Frank Edgar is undefeated and can seemingly out hustle most
fighters like he did to Tyson Griffin. In my opinion this is a step down
in opponents for Edgar after defeating Spencer Fisher, Mark Bocek, and Tyson
Griffin, although Maynard can really bring it. This is going to be a fast
paced fight. Both excel at wrestling, though I would give the edge to Edgar.
I see a lot of takedowns and reversals in this fight while Edgar works his
way to a decision. Edgar by decision.
Wow, that
was just the UNDER CARD!
The Main Card
Houston
Alexander vs. James Irvin: I am prepared to get some hate-mail
on this one. I have never been on the Alexander bandwagon. I said when
he fought Thiago Silva that he was over-rated. I also said that if he did
beat Silva, I would jump aboard. While he proved his stand-up is strong,
he showed a HUGE weakness on the ground. Now, I know about the whole story
of the NJSAC and hour before the fight thing, but it is still a weakness.
I honestly just don’t like Alexander’s “brawler” style.
There is nothing really technical in his striking game. He tried to do
a choke slam on Thiago Silva!
James
Irvin is a UFC vet and a well rounded fighter. I am interested to see
what he can bring to this fight. I am sure that he respects the power
behind Alexander’s punches and may want to avoid it for a round.
Irvin should go for the takedown and look for some ground-and-pound in
the first round. The second round, he may be able to stand with Alexander
and finish the fight standing earning himself quite a name. Don’t
forget that Alexander was almost put out by Jardine before recovering
and getting the knockout himself. I see Irvin winning this fight by TKO
in the second round. Irvin by TKO.
Kurt
Pellegrino vs. Nate Diaz: Diaz has been very impressive since
winning TUF 5. Diaz’s BJJ is very strong as 6 of his 8 wins have come by
way of submission including submission wins over Junior Assuncao and
Alvin Robinson. Kurt Pellegrino is definitely no slouch on the ground,
Batman holds a fine record in submission grappling. This is going to
be a great technical fight with lots of submission attempts. Diaz has
one submission loss at tge hands of Hermes Franca, who Pellegrino has
trained with. I don’t see that happening in this fight. This one
is going all the way to decision and I think Diaz will get it. Diaz by
decision.
Matt
Hamill Vs. Tim Boetsch: Boetsch made quite a showing in his
UFC debut against David Heath by literally throwing him around and winning
via
TKO in the first round. It was a great win and put his name in many people’s
minds. Matt Hamill is making his return to the Octagon after a disputed
loss (hometown decision) to Michael Bisping that most thought he won.
Boetsch won't being able to throw Hamill around like he did against Heath,
but The Hammer had better keep his hands up in this fight. I can see
Hamill pushing in for aggressive takedowns all three rounds. On the ground
I don’t think there will be much action though. Hamill by decision.
Thiago
Alves vs. Karo Parisyan: This is another great fight. The #1 contender
spot is a bit confusing right now between Karo and Jon Fitch. Karo lost
his title shot two years ago from an injury and when he came back he
was forced to climb back up the ladder. Well, he lost a close decision
to Diego Sanchez. Since that time, he has defeated 3 fighters and believes
he deserves the title shot. I think a match between Karo Parisyan and
Jon Fitch is in order to determine the #1 contender.
But
wait…. Thiago Alves is standing in the way. Alves is a strong
up-and-comer in the welterweight division. He boasts strong stand-up and
a developing ground game. This fight is going to be all over the place.
Standing up, it goes to Alves. On the ground, it goes to Karo. The Heat
has really been trying to show his improved stand-up in his last few fights,
but that will not cut it against Alves. I am picking Alves by decision
in a great fight, making Jon Fitch a clear #1 contender to the winner of GSP vs. Serra rematch. Alves by decision.
Kenny
Florian vs. Joe Lauzon: Did you that Florian finishes fights?
Seriously though, I am sick of hearing him say that. Maybe if you are
finishing
fights every time, you aren’t fighting the right opponents. Anyway,
I am completely impressed at how much Florian’s game has improved.
He has always been great on the ground, but to see his stand-up after
training in Thailand and with Mark DellaGrotte is quite impressive.
Joe
Lauzon, since leaving TUF 5, has been training in Hawaii with UFC lightweight
champion BJ Penn. This cannot do anything to hurt your game unless you
are eating as many burritos as BJ. This will be Lauzon's biggest opportunity
since knocking out Jens Pulver before he even appeared on TUF.
I really
think that Florian is too much for Lauzon at this point. Kenny Florian
is getting close to earning another shot at the welterweight
title. Florian will handle Lauzon on the ground or standing up. This
fight will end in the second round by submission as Florian finishes
another opponent. Florian by decision.
