WEC Odds and Info
WEC 53 Odds should be released Tuesday, December 14. The UFC will be absorbing WEC in 2011, so this will be their last event. WEC has been my favorite organization for awhile and it'll be sad to see them disappear, but it's good for the fighters who'll get a chance to earn bigger paychecks in the Big Show. Here's a quick look at the undercard and what to expect when the odds come out.
Renan Barão vs. Chris Cariaso - What an incredibly hard fight to pick, both guys have plenty of fights, but there's just not a lot of good video or info to base a solid pick off of. Plus the smaller guys have to take fights at any weight they can get and the dynamics of the smaller classes just add to the difficulty. I'd lean towards Cariaso, especially if he's an underdog, but that's not a very confident choice.
Ricardo Lamas vs. Yuri Alcantara - Alcantara certainly has a great record, but 7 wins in 2010 is red flag. I really question the level of competition if he was able to get in that many fights. Once again, there's not a lot of info to go off of except his record. Lamas, on the other hand, is someone we all know to be an outstanding wrestler that's put up 5 wins against WEC competition. I'm willing to take a shot on Lamas if he comes in at -150 or better because I know he can get the job done unless Alcantara is an absolute beast.
Danny Castillo vs. Will Kerr - I like Danny Castillo for two reasons. 1. He'll be able to physically control Kerr and should be able to dictate where the fight takes place. 2. Alpha Male is one of the best at coaching up their athletes. I have no doubts Castillo has the tools and the plan to grab a win over Kerr, who has shown some nice submission skills but getting a win off his back will be difficult. Castillo should probably come out around -250.
Eddie Wineland vs. Ken Stone - Eddie Wineland is excellent WEC gatekeeper type who'll finish Stone if he's got any nerves in his WEC debut. If Stone can relax he should be able to make a fight of it, especially if he can get Wineland to the mat. Wineland will be a sizable favorite based on his standup advantage and experience. Stone is playable as underdog if the price is +250 or more. Take Wineland if you see him -200 or better.
Brad Pickett vs. Ivan Menjivar - Hard to believe Pickett is on the undercard of any event, he's too exciting to bury in the dark fights. Menjivar has some impressive wins over Tokoro, Curran and Joe Lauzon which proves he's got some talent, but this will be only his second fight back after a 4 year layoff - a huge concern. Pickett is on top of his game, his speed and power will be tough for Menjivar to catch up with if he's rusty. I don't like guys making a comeback, particularly against someone as good as Pickett - just go back a watch his fight against Jorgensen. I doubt we get Pickett at a bettable number.
Jamie Varner vs. Shane Roller - I don't trust either guy. IMO, Varner is a more talented fighter, but I've thought that about his other fights too, only to see him lose. Roller can be a dominant wrestler and I could see him grinding out a dull decision. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if Varner completely schooled Roller standing. I think the only way I'd consider betting this fight is if Varner were a +150 or more underdog. Varner really needs this win to get back in the UFC.
Zhang Tie Quan vs. Danny Downes - I'd hate to be the oddsmaker on this fight. I'll admit I have no idea what to expect out of these two. I like to think I have pretty good knowledge of the small shows, but I don't know jack about the quality of Beijing's MMA. Zhang does have a recent win over Pablo Garzo, who showed some talent recently at the TUF 12 Finale. Danny Downes is a training partner of Pettis' at Roufusport. I have never been a big fan of Roufus fighters and Downes didn't look great against Horodecki in his WEC debut, but I'm not ready to draw any conclusions since he took that fight very short.
Bart Palaszewski vs. Kamal Shalorus - Disclaimer: I have a strange fascination with Bartimus. I have been drawn to betting his fights since infancy, luckily I've been on the winning side more often than not. So, I have become a little bias in his favor. I suspect Shalorus will be about a 2-1 favorite when the line drops, which is fine with me, because the Bartimus is going to win this fight. I realize it's an unpopular opinion, but Shalorus is a plodding, bruiser who's wide open to a good counter-puncher. Bart's a good boxer and he'll get the better of it standing, I have no doubt. My doubts are if Shalorus decides to use his high level wrestling from the opening bell. If Bart gets taken down early, he's very likely to settle for fighting off his back which is a sure way to lose a decision. My guess is that it'll be a slugfest though, with Bart get home early and often.
Donald Cerrone vs. Chris Horodecki - This should be an entertaining fight with both guys swinging, or kicking, for the fences. I might give an edge to Horodecki's power, but Cerrone should be able to pick him apart starting with his legkicks. Cerrone may not have devastating power, but if he starts landing and gains confidence, he can light anyone up. It may be competitive for a while, but Cerrone should eventually overwhelm Horodecki and earn an impressive win. Unfortunately, Cerrone will probably be -300 or worse. Horodecki began his career as a phenom with a bunch of impressive KO's, but we haven't seen many now that he's move up in competition. If you're looking for underdog plays... you'll probably have better chances with Jorgensen, Bartimus or Stone