Affliction Banned Analysis
by Franky Redzepi

Fedor Emelianenko "The Last Emperor" vs. Tim "The Maine-iac" Sylvia:

People have questioned Fedor (-450 ) and his opponents as of late. He has been criticized for not fighting top opponents for a while now, but that will all end on July 19th. Fedor, the widely recognized number one Heavyweight in the world, will face off against former UFC Heavyweight Champ Tim Sylvia (+300) at Affliction: Banned. Affliction has set up a mega show loaded with top fighters (especially heavyweights), and they will finally pit Fedor against a top ten fighter. We last saw Emelianenko in action against 7'6", 350 pound Hong Man Choi at the Yarrenoka!! show on New Years Eve in Japan. Fedor would end up submitting the giant with an armbar from the guard. Sylvia last saw action against current UFC Heavyweight Champ "Minotauro" Nogueira at UFC 81: Breaking Point. Sylvia looked good early on battering the former PRIDE Champ with punches, but was submitted with a guillotine early in the third. Tim has wanted this fight for a long time, and now he gets his shot. Fedor has sat on top of the Heavyweight ranks for a long time, but many people think Tim could be the man to beat him. Tim's size and reach tend to give guys a lot of problems, so we'll find out how Fedor deals with the big man.

Fedor is small Heavyweight at 6' and 225-230 pounds. Tim is one of the biggest Heavyweights at 6'8" and 265 pounds, sometimes even higher than 265 on fight day. Every time Tim fights people seem to mention him being a bad matchup for the other guy, which I don't understand. His size can give guys problems, sure, but I don't see him as being a bad matchup for Fedor. Tim has shown a glaring weakness in his ground game, so Fedor is actually the bad matchup for Tim, not the other way around. Nogueira needed less than a minute to beat Tim when he put him on his back. Now, Nogueira did struggle putting big Tim on his back, but Nogueira's wrestling is his biggest weakness. I don't see Tim defending Fedor's takedowns much, if at all. Tim is good at defending takedowns when guys go for his legs, which we have seen in his fights against Ricco Rodriguez, Jeff Monson, and Nogueira. I have never seen Fedor shoot for someone's legs in MMA. Fedor uses clinch takedowns, and mixes them up with strikes nicely. We saw Tim get put down repeatedly by Randy Couture using upper body clinches, even Brandon Vera got Tim down from an upper body clinch at one point. I'm not sure Fedor has better takedowns than Randy, but they're pretty damn close.

Fedor is one of the faster heavyweights out there, his movement and reflexes are excellent compared to other Heavyweights. Watch him defend Cro Cop's leg kicks, not many guys can say they defended kicks from Mirko, who throws them fast and disguises high or low. Watch Fedor's third fight against Nogueira, see how fast he closes the distance and mixes his striking with his takedowns. Fedor loves coming in with a lead right hand or lead left hook to close the distance, nobody has been able to stop it. Tim has shown vulnerability to exactly those kind of shots and even been knocked down several times, i.e. Arlovski and Couture. I don't think Fedor will knock Tim out because Fedor hasn't shown one punch KO power, but I can see him dropping big Tim with either of those punches. Sylvia may be big but he's slow, which will actually hurt him in this fight. I see Tim having a very hard time finding his range before Fedor closes the distance and ends up in a clinch. All Fedor needs is one takedown, where he can end the fight in one of many ways. Fedor has shown devastating ground and pound, and he has shown some slick submissions, especially his armbars. If Randy Couture had a more aggressive submission game he would have finished Tim in that fight. Randy's fight against Tim is the best example to use when analyzing the upcoming fight between Fedor and Tim. Tim might have been injured in his fight against Randy, but I don't buy it. Tim decided to fight, and he got clearly dominated for five rounds.

Tim needs to land that big punch to win. He knows it, and so does everyone else. As I mentioned, I don't see Tim landing on Fedor very much at all. People keep bringing up Tim's fight with Nogueira as an example for this fight. I will admit that Tim did much better in that fight than I expected, but Nogueira always gets beat up in his fights. Nogueira doesn't have much head movement and has seemingly slowed down a bit lately. Tim won't be able to land on Fedor as frequently as he did Nogueira. I expect a lot of movement from Fedor in this fight, just as he did in his third fight against Nogueira. Fedor will keep Tim guessing all night, which will throw Tim off his striking game. Tim fights better when he knows a guy will strike with him, check his fights with Arlovski for evidence of this. When Tim knows in the back of his mind that the guy will try to take him down, his striking game suffers badly. You can see examples of this in his fight against Randy Couture. It's hard to hit someone with that big punch if they're always moving and keeping you off balance. Tim will never be confident enough to plant his feet and throw that big punch, because of his concerns of a takedown. There's a reason why Tim couldn't KO Jeff Monson, and that's because he never wanted to fully plant his feet and put everything into any punch. Tim knows if the fight hits the ground he will lose. That isn't the case with someone like Fedor. It would be in Fedor's best interest to take the fight down obviously, but the skill disparity between the two of them on the feet isn't as wide as it is on the ground.

One thing Fedor does that worries me sometimes is he gives up position off his back. He doesn't mind giving up side control and laying there to wait things out. We saw him do that against Mark Hunt, and Hunt's weight advantage seemed to give Fedor some problems in that position. I don't see Fedor being put on his back, but if he does Tim should try and take advantage of it. If Fedor does end up on his back, Tim needs to make sure he doesn't lay in Fedor's guard. If Tim lays there, he will get armbarred, guaranteed. Fedor probably has the slickest and fastest armbar off his back in MMA, so you don't want to mess around there if you don't have much submission defense. Tim needs to try and keep his distance like he has done in the past. If Fedor gets close, he will get the clinch and sling Tim to the mat. The second Tim's back is on the ground the fight is over I think. I don't want to take anything away from Tim, but he really hasn't shown me enough to make me believe he can survive on his back. Eventually, the fight will end up with Tim on his back and that's where it will end. Fedor will remind people why he was and is so highly regarded for all those years.

Fedor Emelianenko wins by First Round Submission. (top)

"The Baby face Assassin" Josh Barnett vs. Pedro "The Rock" Rizzo:

Seven years ago Pedro Rizzo (+300) knocked out Josh Barnett at UFC 30, and now Barnett (-400) gets a chance to erase that loss after all these years. In the post fight interview, Josh said he would knock Rizzo out next time, and the chance has finally come. Rizzo was a top dog at the time, and Barnett was a highly touted up and comer. Roles have kind of reversed in the seven years that have passed. Barnett has put himself on top of the Heavyweight ranks, with wins over guys like Nogueira and Aleksander Emelianenko. Rizzo has fallen off the ranks a bit with a tough run in PRIDE, losing to Sergei Kharitonov and Roman Zentsov. Most recently Barnett grabbed wins over Hidehiko Yoshida by submission, and Jeff Monson by unanimous decision under the World Victory Road banner. Rizzo recently won a decision over Justin Eilers, and then he would go on to knock Jeff Monson in the Art of War promotion. Seven years have gone by, so have things changed? I think they definitely have, and we are about to see.

Their first fight was pretty competitive, with all the action taken place on their feet. It wasn't wise to stand with Rizzo at the time, but Josh decided to test his striking game and he did fairly well. There were some clinches, but neither guy really committed to any takedown attempts. Josh has gotten much better overall since then, and I'm not so sure Rizzo has. It can be argued that Rizzo has actually declined since the first fight. Barnett has stood with some tough strikers since that fight. He may not always win the exchanges, but he has shown he can last with guys like Aleksander Emelianenko and Mirko Cro Cop. I'm not so sure standing would be the greatest idea for Josh though. Josh might be able to stand, but why risk it? A lot of people thought Josh was going to stand with Mark Hunt and possibly lose because of it, but he proved people wrong and quickly took Hunt down and went on to submit him. Josh says he wants to knock Rizzo out, but I think he'll take him down at some point to secure the win.

Rizzo is on the decline, despite his solid win against Monson. Rizzo was supposed to beat guys like Kharitonov and Zentsov, but he ended up losing pretty brutally. You can never be too sure where Rizzo's head is during a fight, and that's been an issue since early on in his career. You never know if Rizzo is going to be willing to trade like he did against Barnett the first time, or if he'll be overly tentative. Rizzo has never been submitted, but he has shown that he can be taken down and controlled in past fights. Rizzo showed a decent sprawl against Monson, but Barnett is a different animal. Barnett won't shoot in from miles away, he will be able to get the takedown pretty easily. Barnett will drag Rizzo down in the second and find the submission he needs to secure a win. Barnett has one of the most aggressive submission games in MMA, his ground game is somewhat unorthodox which can confuse guys occasionally . If Josh grabs a limb, he isn't afraid to take it home with him if he has to. No disrespect to Rizzo, but this is my advice to him: tap quickly.

Josh Barnett wins by Second Round Submission. (top)

Aleksander Emelianenko vs. Paul "The Head Hunter" Buentello:

Affliction throws out another top heavyweight bout in its first event. The younger brother of Fedor, Aleksander Emelianenko, will face off against former UFC Heavyweight Title challenger, Paul Buentello. I guess the rumors of Aleksander not being able to fight in America were false. Aleksander had a pretty solid run in PRIDE, including a win over the very dangerous striker Sergei Kharitonov. We last saw Aleksander take out Silvao Santos with punches at M-1 Challenge. Paul Buentello (+300) came onto the scene when he knocked Justin Eilers out, who was highly hyped at the time. Paul would go on to fight for the UFC title against Andrei Arlovski, losing in brutal fashion. We last saw Buentello in a fight against another PRIDE veteran. Alistair Overeem, and Buentello got thoroughly beat down in that one. This should be another exciting Heavyweight face off as it pits two strikers against each other. These guys have the potential to knock the other one out at anytime.

After seeing what Overeem did to Buentello I have a hard time not picking Aleksander. Along with Kharitonov, Aleksander has the best boxing game in MMA. Buentello has good hands, but I think Aleksander is a few levels above him. We've also seen Aleksander (-450) begin to add more knees to his striking arsenal, which should be effective against Buentello. Overeem destroyed Buentello with knees to the body, I really don't think Buentello likes getting hit to the body. Aleks is light on his feet and his movement will give Buentello a lot of problems. The last striker Buentello fought that moved a lot was Arlovski, and we all know what happened there.

I believe Buentello is just outmatched in this fight. Whenever Buentello has fought someone at a higher level, he's lost. Aleksander has fought much better strikers than Buentello, and he has beaten some of them. Aleksander stood and exchanged with Sergei Kharitonov, and I would have to say that Kharitonov is much better on his feet than Buentello is. Buentello has to rely on his striking game, he doesn't have much else. Buentello is fighting a much better striker in my opinion, so what can he really do? Is he going to take Aleksander down? Is he going to try to submit Aleksander? Is he going to win a decision with takedowns? No, Aleksander is better on the ground. Buentello will try to stand and bang it out, and he'll get put out by a better striker. Aleksander is too light on his feet and his punches are quicker, more accurate and harder. Aleksander Emelianenko will knock Paul Buentello out early.

Aleksander Emelianenko wins by First Round KO/TKO. (top)

Andrei "The Pitbull" Arlovski vs. "Big" Ben Rothwell:

It's beginning to get old, but we have another solid Heavyweight bout on this stacked Affliction card. Former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski will face off against former IFL star Ben Rothwell. Rothwell will step up to the big leagues and fight his biggest competition yet, and Arlovski will face another big Heavyweight out of the Miletich Camp. We last saw Arlovski at UFC 82, where he took out previously undefeated Jake O'Brien. Rothwell last saw action against Ricco Rodriguez in the IFL where Rothwell would win a decision, but Ricco took the fight on short notice and really hasn't been at his best in a long time. Rothwell dominated the IFL for a couple years, but can he do that against top competition like Arlovski? Andrei was once thought to be on top along with Fedor, can he get back to that status? Will Arlovski come out like a "Pitbull", or will he come out tentative? These questions will soon be answered.

The best Heavyweight Rothwell has fought is Roy Nelson, and Nelson gave him all kinds of problems. Nelson is mainly a grappler, but he held his own on his feet against Rothwell. One thing I noticed in that fight was that Nelson was able to land an overhand right several times. It never landed perfectly clean, but Roy got it up there. Arlovski's biggest weapon is his overhand right, which could end it if Big Ben hasn't shored up his defense. I've never seen Rothwell defend kicks, or maybe it's because no one has tried to throw them at him. Either way, Arlovski has an effective leg kick which is another thing Rothwell has to be aware of. Arlovski has struggle against taller guys like Tim Sylvia in the past, so Rothwell could try to use his height and reach advantage, but I've never seen Rothwell use it nearly as effectively as Tim. Rothwell is a slow plodder, while Arlovski is one of the fast and athletic. Everything in this fight seems to point to an Arlovski win for me.

Then again, there's always the question of Arlovski's chin whenever he fights. It could become a factor, but I don't see it deciding the fight. Rothwell does have a good arsenal of strikes, he isn't just a puncher, he mixes in some knees and kicks. However, I don't see Rothwell doing anything that Arlovski hasn't seen before.

Ben and Tim are both fighting on this card and they train together, so that should benefit them because they'll be pushing each other. That alone gives Rothwell a shot at winning, but I still don't see him pulling off the win. Arlovski will be too quick and too elusive for Rothwell to land anything effective. I think we'll see one of the best Arlovski's we've seen in a long time. He's going to come out and want to knock Rothwell out, and he'll be able to land his shots. Arlovski was too worried about the takedown when he fought Werdum and O'Brien, but that worry really isn't there this time. I also think that fighting in a ring will benefit Arlovski. Arlovski loves to box, so he should feel comfortable. He'll be able to cut guys off and unload punches in corners now, and he didn't have that luxury in the octagon. Rothwell is a borderline top ten fighter, but he isn't ready for Arlovski. Arlovski will finish Rothwell out after a brief feeling out process.

Andrei Arlovski wins by Second Round KO/TKO. (top)

Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira vs. Vernon "Tiger" White:

Brother of UFC Heavyweight Champ, Rogerio Nogueira, will face off against Lions' Den fighter Vernon White. Both guys have fought in the big show multiple times. Nogueira is most known for his run in PRIDE, where he beat guys like Alistair Overeem and Dan Henderson. Vernon made appearances in the UFC and PRIDE, but he's never really earned a big career-defining win. Both these guys are now trying to find a new place to call home in the MMA world. These guys are well rounded fighters, and similar in many ways. Both are good strikers with sound submission skills, and they both are a little lacking in wrestling ability. Rogerio has more of a boxing style, and his BJJ is some of the best, while Vernon is more of a kicker and isn't as technical on the ground. I expect an exciting fight right to the finish.

Rogerio has Vernon edged out in almost every area. Rogerio has some of the most technical boxing in the MMA game, and I think he should be able to handle Vernon on the feet. Vernon mixes up his strikes a bit more, but I don't think he'll be able to do enough to throw Rogerio off his game. Vernon doesn't have super devastating power, so I don't think he can really hurt Rogerio. I'm not sure Rogerio has the chin of his brother, but it's definitely a good chin. I really see Vernon getting handled and picked apart on the feet pretty easily. Vernon has a tendancy to cover up a bit too much sometimes. When he gets in bad positions, often times he forgets about improving and simply tries to limit damage. Vernon needs to be careful he doesn't get caught in a bad position or Rogerio will start unloading like he did when he stopped Overeem.

It's only a matter of time before Vernon finds himself in that bad position. It'll happen on the feet, and it will happen on the ground. When Vernon fought Whitehead, Whitehead was able to get Vernon's back and punish him. Once again, Vernon was in a tough spot and wouldn't move. He just covered up and took the shots until the fight was stopped. Rogerio will end up getting Vernon's back at some point, but Rogerio won't try to punch him from the back mount, he'll just find a submission. Rogerio won't wait for the ref step in, I see him getting the choke or sliding off for an armbar. There is nothing Vernon can do to win this fight in my mind. Rogerio has his number, and he will make Vernon give up in this fight.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira wins by Second Round Submission. (top)