UFC 102 Analysis:
by Franky Redzepi email

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Randy Couture

This is a matchup between true two legends. Nogueira is arguably the greatest heavyweight to ever fight in MMA, and is probably the most decorated heavyweight to have fought in the UFC. He is also the first man to hold a major PRIDE and UFC title. Couture never ceases to amaze as he has pulled off some of the biggest upsets in the sport. He's the first man to win a title in two different weight classes in the UFC, and he accomplished most of his truly defining moments at 39 and up. I believe this will be Randy's second three round match in over a decade, that in itself is amazing. The things that these men have been able to do over the years is truly amazing. It's almost kind of sad to see them have to fight because there aren't many people out there who would like to see either lose. Both are classy men and have been great ambassadors for the sport, but at the same time, it would be a shame to never see them fight. This fight would've happened years ago if Randy and the UFC didn't have their contractual problems. I believe it would've been better then, but better later then never. There's a lot of questions going into this fight for both men. Nogueira probably had the worst performance of his career against Mir, and was also finished for the first time in his career. There are many questions if all the damage has caught up to him and if he can still compete at this level. Randy didn't have a terrible performance against Brock, but it also wasn't his best in my mind, and he's also 46...you have to winder when his time will come. A lot of questions will be answered when this event is done and over with. I hope we get to see the best out of these two legends at the end of it, though.

I've never been one to base a pick on one fight. Nogueira had one really bad performance against Mir and it seems like everyone has written him off. It was the same case when Shogun fought Chuck. It seemed like before the fight people were already planning Shogun's funeral, but I didn't see it that way. It is a bit different with Nogueira in this fight, though. Nogueira has seemed a bit slower in the UFC overall, but that can be two things. Nogueira has been much heavier during his UFC run compared to his days in PRIDE, and he says he plans on coming in lighter for this fight. The other reason could be the fact that he has taken so many beatings over the years and it's all catching up to him. You don't take a headkick from Cro Cop, some of the most devastating ground and pound from Fedor, and another brutal headkick from Herring and just walk away from it with no problems in the long run. Those are only three examples, Nogueira has had many more of those types of fights. Nogueira should never be dropped by someone like Mir, it should never happen, but it did. It wasn't the fact that Nogueira just got dropped, it was that he just wasn't there at all. He barely fought back and he just looked completely lost. I do believe Mir has faster hands and maybe a bit more power than Randy, but it isn't a huge difference. A few years ago i would've said that Randy had no chance of ever knocking Nogueira down, no chance of finishing him, but now you have to wonder a bit. I also believed that the striking game was pretty close between the two. I even thought maybe Nogueira had the edge standing at a point, but now I'm not so sure. You have to question Nogueira's state at this point when looking at this fight. It can't be ignored.

If the Nogueira that fought Herring the third time shows up I think he has a shot, and that isn't even close to the best Nogueira we've seen. I believe Nogueira might have the better hands here, but I also believe Randy's head movement will make it very hard for Nogueira to land shots. Nogueira was able to kind of neutralize the head movement that Barnett tried to use when they fought by throwing some good knees to the body. I think that could be effective against Randy because Randy tends to use somewhat exaggerated head movement when he fight. He leans too far and puts himself in a vulnerable position for just a second, he isn't able to move in that position. That's how Brock ended up catching Randy when they fought. When Nogueira gets comfortable with his striking, he can be very effective with it. He completely owned Herring with his hands the last time they fought, and he gave Barnett a lot of problems the last time they fought, too. I don't know if Nogueira can get too comfortable here, though, because Randy is always looking to clinch and maybe mix in a takedown. I don't know if he'll be looking to take Nogueira down, but we can definitely expect some clinching against the fence. Nogueira doesn't wanna end up stuck against the fence for three rounds, so he has to make sure his punches count when he does throw. If he can pull Randy down to the ground, then great, but I'm not sure he'll wanna pull guard like he did against Tim because Randy is a bit more crafty then Tim. Nogueira can definitely catch Randy in something, but it will be harder. If Randy gets too comfortable than he will get submitted, that's the key with Nogueira, you can't get comfortable. When Cro Cop fought Nogueira he got a little too relaxed, Tim also got a bit too comfortable and they paid for it. Fedor knew he couldn't get comfortable, he was constantly moving, and because of that he was able to defeat Nogueira's guard. Randy has shown to get comfortable down there, so we'll see what happens. He hasn't fought a ground threat like Nogueira in a very long time.

This is a very hard fight to pick a winner in. I'm a big fan of both guys and that just makes it harder. Part of me really believes Nogueira has more in him and can win this one. I really don't think he can possibly show up to the fight as bad as he did against Mir. I expect a much better Nogueira, and if he shows up in somewhat of an old form, I really think he can win. We don't know if Randy can handle someone like Nogueira on the ground, he has never been tested by that type of guard in MMA. At the same time, though, we just don't know if Nogueira still has it. I wanna say he does and I hope he does, but you can't look at it like that when picking a fight, especially when money is involved. I don't buy these rumors that Nogueira has been getting knocked out in practice, but I do believe that he isn't the same guy. There's a lot of rumors out there, but we can still see with our own eyes that something isn't quite right. I still don't believe Randy will finish him, but I do think we'll see a Nogueira who is just a step behind all night. I think Nogueira might get dropped a few times, I think he'll be stuck in the clinch, and I don't think he'll have enough time to really work his guard. I expect Randy to go for late takedowns just to try and solidify rounds. I see Randy playing a bit of a safe game here because he'll respect Nogueira's ground skills, and that could turn the fight into a bit of a disappointment, unless you like a lot of clinching against the cage. As I said, I'm a big fan of both guys, but I kind of hope I'm wrong on this one. I don't think anyone deserves to win more than Nogueira, but I don't think i can bet on that happening. Randy will control the fight against a Nogueira who looks slow and weathered, and he'll take the decision.

Randy Couture wins by Unanimous Decision

Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia

Here we have another very tough fight to pick. Maia's submission game has looked near impossible, but he really hasn't fought anyone as tough as Marquardt yet. Plus, you could make the argument that everyone that Maia has fought so far has had a decent to average ground game, while Nate is above average. Then you add in the other skills of Marquardt; his striking, his wrestling, his size and strength, now you have a completely different type of test for Maia. Still, though, Maia's ground game is a thing of beauty and it's levels above Nate's, even if he is a black belt. I would compare there ground levels as more of a good black belt facing a decent purple belt. They're both black belts, but the color of the best doesn't say everything. I'm pretty confident in saying that Marquardt wouldn't be able to beat Gabriel Gonzaga in a submission match, but Maia has done just that. Of course, grappling in MMA and grappling just to grapple are two different things, but Maia has been able to make the switch over better then anyone else in my opinion. Not everyone can make certain skills applicable to MMA. Marcelo Garcia is one of the best, if not the best grappler alive, and he couldn't really bring his ground skills over to MMA. Look at the countless kickboxers who have basically failed in MMA. That isn't the case with Maia, he can apply his art to MMA and he shows it every time. If Marquardt wants to win this fight' he needs to stay the hell away from the ground. Marquardt definitely has the edge standing, but he needs to make it count. Whoever can implement their game will win this fight. That's all it really comes down to in this case. Marquardt will never beat Maia on the ground and Maia will never beat Marquardt in a striking battle.

I read peoples opinions on this fight online and I see a lot of people saying the same thing. A lot of people are saying things like "MAIA CAN'T HANDLE MARQUARDTS NEW AGGRESSIVE STRIKING STYLE!!" or "MARQUARDT IS WAY TOO STRONG FOR MAIA!!!" and I think both of those things are wrong. First of all, yes, Marquardt has been much more aggressive lately, but who was he aggressive against? Kampmann and Gouveia? Of course he was more aggressive against those guys, they're two strikers where one was too small and the other one gasses all the time. I really doubt we'll be seeing that type of aggressiveness from Nate against someone like Maia. If he throws some crazy spinning elbow and misses, it can be guaranteed that he'll end up taken down and on his back. People will say that Nate was more aggressive against Thales, who is also a ground guy, but I believe that was more out of desperation because he had two points deducted. Plus, Thales is nothing like Maia on the ground, nowhere near it. Thales is another case of a guy who really couldn't transfer his game over. I guarantee Maia wouldn't lose to Alessio Sakara. The second point about Marquardt being stronger might be true, but I think a lot of people are just basing it on looks. Marquardt is a big and muscular guy, while Maia doesn't look as impressive. Marquardt will definitely be bigger and more jacked, but you have to remember that Maia is a guy who has grappled forever. He's been rolling around with bigger men forever. He didn't beat Gonzaga out of luck, he did it because he's skilled and he has strength that is applicable to the things that he does. If they hit the ground, Maia will make Marquardt look weak. If you think Marquardt will just power out of anything Maia does, you are wrong. It will take more than just size and strength to beat Maia. The real question is can Maia last on the feet long enough to take Nate down?

Marquardt is a good striker and he has some power, but he doesn't have one punch knockout power. He isn't a guy where if he touches you, you just collapse and go to sleep. He doesn't have that prime Chuck Liddell type of power. Marquardt is a guy who hits hard and his shots hurt, but he has to wear you down before he can finish you. He beat on Gouveia for like three rounds before he got the finish. I think Maia could last on the feet because of that. I don't think Maia will come out on win the striking battle, but he can last. Maia is tough enough to last on the feet and go for the takedown, and if he can't get the takedown he'll just pull half guard and do some crazy sweep, just as he always does. After seeing how Maia tossed Chael Sonnen, I'm not so sure he'll have too much of a problem getting takedowns. If he can't, though, he has the pulling guard method that has yet to fail him. I think a lot of guys fall into that game because they think if they're on top they can win, but that isn't the case with Maia. If you go down to the ground with Maia in any position you will get triangled. Marquardt will definitely be by far the best striker Maia has fought so far, though, so the story might be different. He might be able to create some angles and stay out of takedown range, and he could end up frustrating Maia. Marquardt will need to use some intelligent footwork and movement in this fight to stay on his feet. If they're ever in a clinch situation or close at all, it's trouble. Same goes for Maia, though, he can't stay on the outside for too long in this fight. He doesn't wanna end up eating leg-kicks and jabs for three rounds, and that could be the type of game Nate will play because he respects Maia's game. I do believe that Maia is more of a threatening on the ground to Nate than Nate is on the feet to Maia. I believe Maia will finish it quicker on the ground than Nate would on the feet.

Nate is one of the most well-rounded fighters around, but I don't know if he can stop Maia's game. It's kind of a case where I can't see Maia's ground game being neutralized until I actually see it happen. Maybe that's a bad way of looking at it, but that's just how I see it. Nate needs to knock Maia out or he needs to not make any mistakes over three rounds. A knockout is possible, but Nate fighting the perfect fight for three rounds is impossible, in my eyes anyway. Maia only needs one takedown or one guard pull to end it all. Maybe I'm underestimating Nate, I've done it before, but I see Maia's submission streak continuing. I see the first round being a bit of a feeling out process where not much happens, maybe some clinching against the cage. They'll both be tentative early because they'll respect the other's game, but it will all change in the second. Maia will latch onto Nate and find a way to get him down. That might mean a nice takedowns or just dragging him down, but once it's down there Maia will seal the deal. Messing with Maia on the ground is like trying to strike with Anderson...you just shouldn't do it. I see Marquardt playing around a bit too long down there and paying the price, and that price will be a submission loss for Marquardt. Nate has had a good and exciting run, but it ends against Maia.

Demian Maia wins by Second Round Submission

Keith Jardine. vs. Thiago Silva

This pick has a bit easier on me. Jardine is a guy who has always been just on the brink of showing himself to be one of the best in the world, but then he goes and loses a fight. That seems to be a pattern with Jardine; win a big fight and then lose a fight you shouldn't lose. Jardine is definitely a solid fighter but he's very inconsistent, and there's some questions about his chin. He held it together against Rampage for three rounds so I don't think his chin is really bad, I think it has to do more with being able to recover. When Houston and Wanderlei hurt Jardine they were all over him and never let up, Jardine never really had the chance to recover. Jardine was hurt against guys like Rampage, but they really weren't on him as much. The super-aggressive guys are the ones who give Jardine trouble, and I'm not so sure Thiago is that guy. He's definitely a fighter who always moves forward and he has power, but if he drops Jardine I don't think he'll be able to seal the deal like Wanderlei did. I've always felt Thiago was maybe a bit overrated. He got a lot of hype for beating Houston Alexander at the right time, but now we see what Houston's all about. Jardine is the more well rounded fighter in my mind, and if he fights the right fight I think he can win this one without much of a problem. He needs to fight Thiago like he fought Chuck and Vera, not how he fought Houston. If he keeps himself calm and works the gameplan, Jardine will walk home with the win. If he gets excited and rushes in, then he can definitely drop another loss. This is really Jardine's fight to lose in my opinion.

As I mentioned earlier, Thiago is a guy who just walks straight in. He wants to brawl but he isn't exactly a guy who pushes the toughest pace and he doesn't have amazing power. Thiago is a guy who doesn't seem to really defend leg kicks, and we all know Jardine likes to throw a lot of kicks. Thiago is just a puncher whose game is to basically walk straight in until he can break through and land a shot, but I don't see that working with Jardine. Jardine is a guy who is always moving and is always throwing something. Even if Jardine is a very awkward fighter, he's still a busy fighter and he can consistently land strikes. All he really has to worry about in this fight are Thiago's hands as he walks straight forward. Thiago is aggressive in that he never takes a step back, but it's different from Houston and Wanderlei. Thiago fights in a very slow and almost obvious way, but with someone like Wanderlei, he's just throwing all these punches with a lot of violence on his mind. It isn't like that with Thiago, he isn't as ferocious. This is why I think if Thiago does hurt Jardine, he won't be able to finish the fight. He won't be able to take advantage of Jardine's slow recovery like these other guys did. I really don't see Thiago being able to land much in this fight, though. Jardine will be moving too much and he'll be out of range. Jardine will be kicking the legs and body all night and make Thiago slower than he already is, and Thiago won't do anything to stop it, he'll just keep going forward. Thiago might try a takedown if he gets desperate, he is very good on top, but Jardine has underrated takedown defense. We might see Jardine mix in a takedown in this fight like he did against Vera, and I think he'd be more successful than Thiago. Thiago isn't the right type of aggressive to beat Jardine and I think Thiago is a perfect fight for Jardine. You can never be too sure with someone as inconsistent as Jardine, but I fell fairly confident that Jardine takes a decision here.

Keith Jardine wins by Unanimous Decision

Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt

This is Leben's first fight back after his loss to Bisping and also after getting busted for roids. He has a lot to prove and he really needs to win this one I think. There isn't much sympathy for a guy who loses two in a row and for a guy who got busted doing steroids. I believe this is a very winnable fight for Leben, though. Usually wrestlers can transfer over to MMA pretty easily. They know how to take guys down so they can control fights, and they usually pick up the submission game pretty easily. That really hasn't been the case for Rosholt so far in his MMA career. He likes to brawl a bit too much and he gets hit way too much. We also saw in his last fight with Dan Miller than his submission defense really isn't that great, he got choked out pretty quickly. Whether you like Leben or not, you have to acknowledge that he hits very had and he's at least active off his back. Maybe he isn't an elite submission artist, but he goes for things. We saw him being very active against Kalib Starnes and we saw him submit Edwin DeWees from his back. You throw in Rosholt's lack of overall defense and this ends up looking like a very winnable fight for Leben. Rosholt rushes straight in, no head movement at all, he just goes straight and hopes for the best. That really won't work with a guy who has power and has some knowledge of submissions. Koscheck was able to take Leben down and hold him there, but that was a long time ago and he was the only guy who did that. If Leben doesn't knock him out and does get taken down, we'll see Leben work his guard or try to get back up. He knows Rosholt is a better wrestler, but he also knows that's the only advantage Rosholt has. I find it hard to believe that Leben won't hit Rosholt at all over three rounds, especially after seeing how Rosholt has zero striking defense. I think we'll see them collide in the center of the octagon, and I think Leben lands at least one bomb from there and that's all it will take. Leben will win due to Rosholt's lack of defense in striking and submissions.

Chris Leben wins by First Round KO/TKO

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer

I really don't see how Chris can win this fight. Every time Gonzaga fights I worry about his conditioning and I worry about his heart a bit when things don't go his way, but I don't see how this one can't go his way. There isn't one thing that I can really say Chris is better at than Gonzaga. The best guy Chris has ever fought is Travis Wiuff, and that isn't really saying too much. Chris lost that fight in the infamous YAMMA, by the way. I've seen Chris get dropped many times by Wiuff, and I wonder what would stop Gonzaga from doing that. I've seen Chris taken down, and I wonder what would stop Gonzaga from doing that, too. I will say Tuchscherer is in better shape than he actually looks, but I still don't think his conditioning is enough to win the fight because I don't see it going very long. That seems to be his gameplan, he says Gonzaga has never gone long in a fight before, but if you're banking on conditioning to win the fight then you're really reaching. That's basically like admitting the other guy is better at every other skill, but you hope he won't be able to finish you, and then you hope he gasses. You're banking on one specific thing to happen in that scenario and it isn't even guaranteed to happen. I think Gonzaga wins this fight in pretty much any way he wants. He can knock him out or submit him, it really doesn't matter. I personally see Tuchscherer getting a little sloppy on the feet and eating a right hand, and then he'll go to sleep. Gonzaga has the power to put people to sleep and that's what will happen here. Unless Chris has the amazing comeback abilities of Shane Carwin, he won't get up and that'll be it. This is a bit of a gimme fight for Gonzaga and I see it going easy for him.

Gabriel Gonzaga wins by First Round KO/TKO