UFC 87Analysis
by Franky Redzepi

Georges "Rush" St. Pierre vs. Jon Fitch:

Jon Fitch (+255) will finally get his chance at Welterweight Gold at UFC 87, after racking up eight wins in the UFC. Nobody knew who should challenge for the title when Karo and Fitch were the top contenders, but Karo has been knocked off since then, and now Fitch is the clear number one contender.

While Fitch separated himself from the rest of the division, Georges St Pierre (-310) was out to prove his loss to Serra wasn't something that would happen twice. GSP did just that, he dominated Serra for two rounds with takedowns, amazing top control, and effective ground and pound. I don't think I've ever seen anyone under the Unified Rules use knees on the ground so effectively as GSP did against Serra in Montreal. GSP seems to be back in top form after a brief slip up against Matt Serra at UFC 69, can Fitch beat the guy who seems unbeatable? Fitch has shown to be a tough guy with a well rounded game, he'll definitely make a fight out of it. This is a huge showdown in the Welterweight Division, and it should be a good one.

Fitch is one of the more well-rounded guys in the division as I mentioned earlier, but I do think he is a bit overrated in some aspects of his game. Fitch is a guy who is willing to mix it up in any part of the game. Fitch will strike, he'll wrestle, and he'll go for submissions; he isn't afraid to mix it up. I just don't believe that he's overly impressive in any of those components. Chris Wilson showed us Fitch can be beat on the feet, Diego Sanchez showed us Fitch can be caught in submissions, and Roan Carneiro showed us Fitch can be taken down. Everyone seems to think that Fitch is some amazing wrestler, but I don't think he is, as far as MMA goes. Even when it comes to Fitch's college wrestling, if you look at the actual stats, Fitch wasn't an amazing wrestler. Fitch was never on a Koscheck or Hughes level as collegiate wrestling goes, and that has shown in MMA. Fitch struggled to take Diego Sanchez down, who was MUCH smaller than him. I honestly believe GSP is simply better at everything Fitch does, including wrestling. GSP has the ability to beat him up on the feet, he has the ability to take him down, he has the ability to control him and possibly submit him. GSP took down everyone he submitted, a list that includes: Matt Hughes, BJ Penn, Frank Trigg, and Josh Koscheck...doesn't get much more impressive than that. The only advantage Fitch will have is his size, Fitch is a very big welterweight. Fitch cuts a lot more weight than GSP does, so much weight that he has missed the 171 pound mark a few times. The one pound allowance doesn't come into play for title fights, so Fitch might have to drain himself a bit More than usual, which could have a negative effect on him.

I don't believe Fitch is on GSP's level. GSP will have his way with him in all aspects, and I truly believe GSP can only beat himself. GSP has tasted the agony of losing the title and I don't think he'll let that happen again. Fitch has to hope that he can knock GSP out. I think that's his only chance, but I really don't believe he has the power to do it. Fitch likes to take guys down and grind fights out, that's his strength, but no one has ever done that to GSP. I don't think we'll be seeing GSP on his back much at all in this fight. GSP will attack the legs of Fitch with kicks like he did against Hughes and Koscheck, and he'll mix in takedowns. Fitch won't be able to standup to the dynamic game that GSP has, and he'll fall apart slowly but surely. Nobody has really tried to actively kick Fitch's legs, GSP likes the kicks, so it should work for him. I honestly see GSP picking Fitch apart on the feet early, and that will force Fitch to go for many unsuccessful takedown attempts. With the amount of weight that Fitch cuts, and the amount of pressure GSP will put on him, Fitch will show signs of gassing. The bottom line is that Fitch has never fought a guy like GSP, and it'll show. Fitch is a tough guy so it'll take GSP a few rounds to finish the fight, but he will finish it, and he'll dominate before the finish. GSP won't let Fitch pass the third round in this one.

Georges St. Pierre wins by Third Round KO/TKO.

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