UFC 87Analysis
by Franky Redzepi

Roger "El Matador" Huerta vs. Kenny "Kenflo" Florian:

Here we have a battle between two Lightweight contenders, where the winner could very well be in line for a title shot. We last saw Kenny (-175) on a UFC Fight Night card that he headlined, and on that card he took care of a young Joe Lauzon in a TKO victory. We saw Roger Huerta (+145) on an earlier Fight Night card where he dropped two exciting rounds to Clay Guida, only to land a perfectly timed knee followed by a rear naked choke finish. Many people believed that Huerta was being brought up too easily with soft competition until he fought Clay, and that seemed to be the case after seeing what Clay did to him early in the fight. Roger proved to the be the real deal though, when he found a way to finish the fight. Roger has since taken a mini break, and this will be his first fight back in a few months. Kenny has been on a roll after losing his chance for the title against Sherk, and he needs this win if he wants be back in the title picture. These are two exciting Lightweight contenders at the top of their game, this is the perfect time to have them meet up in the octagon. The fact that the winner could vie for a title shot should make it that more exciting.

I think this is probably the most competitive fight on the card and the toughest fight for me to call. I do believe that Kenny is the more skilled fighter all around. He has better technical striking, better technical BJJ, and he seems to be the more composed fighter. Roger has a very aggressive style and that usually works for him, but he can get overaggressive sometimes. Roger has the tendency to over-commit on things when he fights, and that can leave openings. When Roger throws a strike, he puts everything into it. There isn't much setup to what Roger does when he fights, he just does it. Kenny is a cerebral fighter and he can take advantage of these mistakes. I don't believe Roger will be able to do anything to Kenny on the feet, his hard-nosed face first style won't work against Kenny. Kenny is way too smart of a striker to fall for that game, and he should be able to pick Roger apart in those type of exchanges. Roger won't have any answers for Kenny's kicking game, which will pay off big-time later in the fight. Kenny isn't exactly the most threatening looking guy, but the guy does kick very hard. His hands aren't as good as his kicks, but they aren't too bad. One area Roger will have an advantage in will be his ability to take Kenny down. I don't necessarily believe Roger is light years ahead of Kenny when it comes to wrestling, but he is the bigger and stronger guy. When Joe Lauzon got a hold of Kenny he was able to get Kenny down, so I can see Roger doing something similar. I really don't see what Roger can do from there though, he can win a decision I guess...but I don't think he'll finish the fight.

Kenny's technical and smart style of fighting will overcome Roger's brawling. Roger will end up chasing Kenny when they strike, which won't turn out good for him. Roger needs to use his physical advantages to win, he needs to bully Kenny in the clinch and take him down. I just don't see Roger going in with the mindset to do that, he's going to go in with the mindset to throw bombs and possibly mix in some takedowns. That won't win Roger the fight unfortunately. Kenny will be able to frustrate Roger and make him fight the type of fight Kenny wants. Kenny will control the distance and land his kicks throughout the fight. If it does end up on the ground Roger won't be able to do much, and Kenny has shown legit skills down there. Roger will also have to watch out for Kenny's elbows, and that might cause Roger to be a bit less aggressive than usual. Roger wants guys to be aggressive and come straight forward, Kenny just won't fall for that game. I like Kenny to possibly finish the fight late when Roger gets a bit too overaggressive on the ground and leaves a submission opening, but I think a decision win for Kenny is a bit more realistic. Roger will be a step behind all night and won't be able to fight his fight. Kenny will win a clear cut decision in this fight, and he'll move one step closer to the title. Kenny won't be able to show off about him finishing fights this time.

Kenny Florian wins by Unanimous Decision.

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