UFC
87Analysis
by Franky Redzepi
Maia
vs MacDonald
Brock Lesnar vs. "The
Texas Crazy Horse" Heath
Herring:
Brock Lesnar (-280)
will give this UFC thing another try at UFC 87 when he steps into the
cage
with MMA veteran Heath Herring (+220). I will
give Brock
credit
though because he definitely isn't taking easy fights. Heath is a legit
fighter who was once thought to be a top ten Heavyweight, and he isn't
far from that now either. Brock showed some skills and good natural
ability in his UFC debut against Frank Mir, but went on to get submitted
with
a kneebar. I actually said Frank would catch Brock with some type of
leglock such as a kneebar because there aren't many Heavyweight's who
go for leglocks, and you had to think Brock wasn't prepared for it.
Heath knows submissions, but he definitely isn't Frank Mir on the ground
and
I don't see him catching Brock with any leglocks. Heath actually showed
us to be an improved striker when he fought Kongo and dropped him in
the first few seconds. Everyone thought Kongo would strike with Herring
after what Kongo did to "Cro Cop", but it was Kongo who went
for takedowns the whole night. That is something Brock will also end
up doing, he will go for takedowns. This fight is interesting because
we'll see where Brock really stands, and this could also put Heath
into title contention if he were to win.
This is another tough fight for me to call because we still don't know
much about Brock. I couldn't pick Brock last time because of his inexperience,
and that inexperience still lingers in the air. Can Brock take a punch?
Can Brock go for 15 hard minutes? Does Brock have any striking or submissions
skills at all? We still don't know the answer to these questions. We
know Brock has wrestling, and he showed pretty good positioning skills
on the ground, but that's all we really saw. Brock also didn't seem
to be able to compose himself because he pounded Mir in the back of
the
head about five times. He definitely didn't do it on purpose, but it
shows us signs of his inexperience. Brock doesn't really know how to
react in certain positions yet. There's no question in my mind that
Brock will take Heath down, no question at all. Heath has never shown
any type
of takedown defense, and pretty much everyone he fought took him down.
My question is can Brock finish the fight quick enough to stay out
of later danger? Does Brock have the gas to keep taking Heath down
and holding
him down for 15 minutes? Heath has fought big wrestlers like Erickson
and Kerr in the past, and he found ways to win in those fights. Can
Brock really stay out of danger for 15 minutes in this fight? That's
the big
question in this fight, because we know Heath can put people out.
Herring has dropped every person he fought in the UFC. He dropped Imes,
he dropped O'Brien, he dropped Kongo, and he even dropped the iron-chinned
Nogueira. For all we know Brock has a glass jaw and can't take punch.
Style wise though, Brock is a bad fight for Heath. O'Brien took him
down all night and was the smaller fighter. Brock will be bigger and
stronger
then Heath, and he's a better wrestler than O'Brien is. Like I said
earlier, I have no doubt that Brock will take Heath down easily. We
all know Heath
doesn't have much on the wrestling side of things. Based on the matchup
I'm going to pick Brock to win, but this isn't a confident pick. I
see Brock taking him down every round and staying on top, Heath won't
have
an answer for it. I usually make picks straight up, but I'll do it
a bit differently this time. I do give Brock the edge on the fighting
side
of things, but I'm not really sure he should be the favorite in this
fight. Like I said, for all we know Brock might gas after one round
and he might have a glass jaw. We don't know how Brock will react to
getting
punched in the face. We have no way of knowing what Brock can really
do yet, so if you wanna bet on this fight, I might throw a small amount
on Herring. If we look at it as a pure matchup style wise though, I
do lean towards a Brock decision. Heath is a tough guy and I don't think
Brock will finish.
Brock Lesnar wins by Unanimous Decision.
Demian Maia vs.
Jason "The Athlete" MacDonald:
The UFC badly needs
some Middleweight contenders, the winner of this fight should emerge
as a top contender
in the division. We see just how
thin the division is now, when we have Patrick Cote challenging for
the title soon. Maia and MacDonald have a common opponent in the UFC,
which
they both beat, in Ed Herman. Not only did they both beat him, but
they both finished him with a triangle choke. Herman was upset when
he tapped
out to MacDonald's triangle, so he made sure to go to sleep when Maia
locked it up on him. Maybe not the best idea, but he stuck to his word.
That was Maia's last fight in the UFC, while MacDonald took care of
Joe Doerksen in a rematch nobody cared about that very same night.
Neither
of these guys are dominating strikers, they're both really submission
guys. This could turn out to be a good grappling battle with a lot
of technique, and I can appreciate that type of fight. Maia has the
better
submission pedigree, but adding strikes to the game changes things
up a bit. I look forward to this fight, someone will definitely be
getting
submitted in this one.
As was said earlier on, neither guy has much striking and that won't
become much of a factor. I believe Maia has a much better submission
game, so maybe Jason will want to try to keep it standing. Even if
he tries to keep it standing, they will hit the ground sooner or later.
Maia's takedowns are better than your usual BJJ guy, he isn't that
BJJ
guy who is forced to pull guard. Maia can take you down and get on
top, and if that does happen you're in big trouble. Jason will be the
bigger
fighter so he could give Maia issues in getting the takedown, but Jason
was never a guy to really have takedown defense. Usually when guys
are confident in their ground game they don't have much takedown defense,
and Jason is confident in his ground game. That will end up being a
mistake
in this fight though, Jason really doesn't want to mess around on the
ground with Maia. Jason has shown he can be beaten on the ground, he
has shown that people can dominate him in some ways down there. Okami
was able to take Jason down and get dominant position, and even Kalib
Starnes showed that Jason could be dominated on the ground earlier
on in his career. Maia is just another level when it comes to the ground
game and submissions. Jason might be overconfident in his skills on
the
ground, he might have the mentality to prove something, and that will
turn out bad for him.
Jason might have one advantage in the fight against Maia, and that
advantage is conditioning. Maia seemed to gas in his fight against
Herman, but
I don't hold it completely against him. That was a tough fight where
they went hard the whole time, and I believe Maia is still adjusting
himself to the octagon. I think Maia will feel much more comfortable
now since this is his third fight in the UFC. Jason's only way to win
this fight is if he can outlast Maia and steal the later rounds, and
I don't see it going on long enough for that to happen. Even if Jason
lands on top it won't be good for him. Maia is just too good on the
ground; he can submit people from his back, or even sweep or reverse
the position.
MacDonald will make the mistake in messing around with Maia on the
ground, and he will get submitted as soon as he does that. Doerksen
came close
to finishing MacDonald with a kimura, and he is nowhere near Maia's
level on the ground. The first round will be pretty competitive, but
it won't
be long until Maia latches onto Jason's neck and forces him to submit.
This is one of my more confident picks, I don't think Jason will have
much for Maia. Maia might just be the next big contender in the Middleweight
division.
Demian Maia wins by Second Round Submission.
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