UFC 99 Analysis

Wanderlei Silva vs. Rich Franklin

Wanderlei Silva This fight will tell us a lot about both of these fighters. It will tell us if Wanderlei can still compete at the highest level, it'll tell us if Wanderlei has what it takes to make a run at 185. It will also tell us if Franklin has what it takes to make a run at 205 because Wanderlei has always been one of the best in the division. Both guys will provide the other with the answer if they can compete in the division that they want to compete in. This fight is at a catch-weight of 195, but it seems like Rich plans on going back to 205 and Wanderlei wants to go to 185 after this fight. There really is no better test for each guy than this. Both are former champions in the division one is leaving and the other is entering. Both of these fighters are good and aggressive strikers, so it should turn into an exciting fight. Wanderlei is always a guy who is going into a fight with the mentality to just kill, even if it puts himself in danger, so I really expect this to be a good fight. Each guy can knock the other one out at anytime and that just makes the excitement level even higher. There have been many questions about Wanderlei as of late. All the beatings have seemingly caught up to him and many have lost faith in him. We'll find out if his time is up or if this move down in weight will rejuvenate his career.

I was originally surprised to find out that Rich was favored in this fight. I expected it to be close but I thought Wanderlei would be slightly favored. I was also surprised by the amount of people who were picking Rich in this one. I see this as a very tough fight to call but it seems like a lot of people are picking Rich in this one. I don't know if I agree with that mind set on this one. Wanderlei still has the power to knock pretty much anyone out, and Rich doesn't have a rock solid chin. I'm not saying Rich's chin is bad or anything, but he can be hurt and dropped. Rich has great recovery so he usually pops right back up, but Wanderlei has that style where he won't let up once he has you hurt. Wanderlei's chin is also a bit questionable as of late. It seems like his lights go out a bit easier ever since Mirko Cro Cop knocked him out. Wanderlei and Rich have very similar reactions when they take a good shot. Wanderlei has been dropped many times in the past and has been able to recover very quickly as Rich does, but I'm not sure if Wanderlei has that type of recovery these days. I do believe people are putting a bit too much weight on Wanderlei's knockout loss to Rampage. Rampage is one of the hardest punchers at 205 in my opinion and he landed a clean left hook on Wanderlei's jaw. That shot would have put a lot of people out I think. I don't think Rich has the power to really put Wanderlei to sleep with one punch, but I do think Wanderlei has the power to put Rich out in one shot. Rich needs to wear Wanderlei out to finish the fight in my opinion.

We also can't forget what has given Rich problems in the past, and that is the muay Thai clinch. I think the way Anderson and Wanderlei use the clinch is very different, but they are both very good at it. Anderson seems a bit more technical with his clinch, he's a bit more methodical when he destroys you with knees. Wanderlei isn't methodical, his intentions are to just destroy. We really haven't seen Wanderlei unleash the clinch in a long time but I won't be at all surprised to see him unleash it here. The fact is that Rich is weak in that area and Wanderlei has shown skills in that area. The clinch could become a factor but I don't see much of the fight happening there. I hear a lot of people say Rich is a technical striker. I think Rich is a smart striker and fighter, but I don't think I'd go as far as calling him a technical striker. He has a bit of a loopy style when he throws his punches. Not being technical isn't a bad thing...his style works but I don't think a world class boxer or kick-boxer would be in awe if he saw Rich's style. Everyone always says that a guy who throws straight punches is a bad fight for Wanderlei, someone like Cro Cop. Is Rich a guy who is really throwing straight punches all the time? I don't really think that's the case. I actually believe that his style actually allows people to come into close quarter with him at times. The best part of Rich's game is his kicks I believe, and he is usually pretty effective at keeping guys at bay with kicks. His kicks are what keeps the other guy at bay, not his punches. Wanderlei showed that he could counter kicks pretty effectively when he fought Jardine, though.

Picking this fight depends on your opinion of Wanderlei really. Many people believe Wanderlei is done and past his prime. They believe that his lights will go out as soon as Rich makes contact. That could very well be the case, but I personally don't think it is. I don't think getting knocked out by a left hook from Rampage means you have a weak or worn down chin. Wanderlei definitely has more mileage on his body when compared to Rich, he has definitely taken more beatings. This is a tough fight to call because you really can't know if Wanderlei is "done" or not. I'm thinking he isn't, and for that reason I'm gonna go with Wanderlei. I don't think Rich responds well when guys put the pressure on him and no one puts more pressure on fights than Wanderlei. It might get Wanderlei knocked out or it might get him the knock out over Rich. MMA has always been a case where your last fight means more than everything else in your career and I believe that's what is happening here. People saw Wanderlei get knocked completely out cold by Rich and they don't believe he has it anymore. Out of all the people that have knocked out Wanderlei, I would say Rich has less punching power than all of them. Rich is a great fighter but the only guy he has ever knocked completely out cold with one punch is Nate Quarry. It's more likely that Rich out-strikes Wanderlei to a decision than it is of him knocking Wanderlei out. I don't believe this fight goes three rounds without Wanderlei ever connecting. I think Wanderlei is a bad fight for Rich and I think he ends this one early. I believe we'll see the Axe Murderer of old and see him completely swarm Rich. Rich is an elite fighter, but I really don't see this one going past one or two rounds

Cheick Kongo vs. Cain Velasquez

The winner of this fight is right in the title mix. I would say that if Kongo wins he would probably deserve the next shot. It can be argued that he already deserves a shot, so this is actually a big risk for him. He's fighting a guy who probably presents the worst matchup for him stylistically. Kongo has shown much improved takedown defense as of late, but he also really hasn't fought a great wrestler. Velasquez is one of the most promising prospects in the game right now, and there's a reason for it. The guy has already shown skills all over the place. He hasn't fought the best competition yet, but he has shown that he doesn't mind throwing hands, he has natural punching power, and he has some of the best wrestling to back it up. He isn't just a wrestler who has shown to have punching power, he actually has pretty good striking from the technical aspect. You don't normally see a guy from a wrestling background throwing leg kicks from the clinch. It's a small detail but that's the type of thing that shows me a fighter is really working to round out his skills. Kongo is dangerous in his own right and he has shown it in all his fights. He was able to outpoint Mirko Cro Cop with bodykicks and knees in the clinch and he completely brutalized Mustafa Al-Turk and Antoni Hardonk with ground and pound. Kongo has definitely rounded out his skills a bit since he first came to the UFC debut. Many people still question Kongo's wrestling skills, this is the fight where we find out how good he really is.

I'm really not sure if there's really a worst fight for Kongo out there right now. Even with his improved wrestling defense you still have to question his skills in that area. Kongo's punching power has never really impressed me so even if this stays on the feet I don't think it's a bad thing for Cain. Kongo is definitely the more experienced striker and the more technical striker, but Cain is the harder puncher in my opinion. The best part of Kongo's striking game seems to be his kicks. He was constantly able to keep Mirko on the outside with inside leg kicks and body kicks, but I'm not sure we'll see him throwing many kicks against Cain. If he throws kicks against Cain he's basically asking for Cain to catch the kick and take him down. If we take Kongo's kicking ability out of the equation, then I believe the striking becomes much closer. Kongo has to limit his game to adjust to Cain, Cain doesn't really have to change much to fight Cain. Obviously Cain doesn't wanna sit there and strike with Kongo for three rounds, but Cain being on the feet with Kongo isn't as bad as Kongo being on his back against Cain. Cain has enough skills to stay out of serious danger on the feet. I don't think Kongo really has the skills to get up off his back if he gets taken down. I'm not sure if Cain will be able to land some serious ground and pound or not, but he should be able to control the fight pretty easily if he gets on top. Having takedown defense is good, but that's only the first defense. Does Kongo have a plan or the skills to get off his back if he gets there? We haven't really seen that yet, but I don't see him getting up from under Cain.

Cain is a guy who was made to beat Kongo. Unless Kongo pulls off some crazy flying knee from nowhere, he's probably losing this fight. Kongo has striking skills but he seems to really favor the takedown and ground and pound as of late. He tried to take down Herring when we all thought he would stand, he took Hardonk down, and he beat Al-Turk up on the ground. I wouldn't be too surprised if we saw Kongo try to take Cain down. If he puts Cain on his back it could be bad for Cain, but I don't see that type of gameplan working for him in the long run. Kongo likes to clinch a lot so I could see himself putting himself right into Cain's strengths. The bottom line is that if Kongo gets too close to Cain, he will be put on his back. Kongo was also hurt early on by Herring when they fought so don't be surprised if we see Cain hurt Kongo when they're standing. In the long run I just see Cain taking Kongo down all night and controlling the fight. I could see Cain possibly getting a stoppage due to ground and pound, but I think Kongo will manage to survive and make it to the scorecards. Kongo will just play defense and will fight to survive, not to win. Plus Kongo has shown some toughness and good recovery in the past so he'll be hard to put away. Cain shows me something new every time so nothing would surprise me in this case. The story of this fight will be the wrestling, it'll be too much for Kongo. Kongo has never fought someone with this level of wrestling and he'll be fighting on short notice. Not a good combination.

Mike Swick vs. Ben Saunders

170 is in need for some new contenders and this should provide us with one. Saunders has a lot of hype after his destruction of Wolff, but can he do that against someone like Swick? that's the question that everyone is asking and we'll know soon enough. It isn't hard to look great against the guys Saunders has looked great again. If he does it against Swick then I'll believe the hype, but I'm not sold as of right now. Swick hasn't looked amazing at 170 s0 far, but he seems to be getting comfortable. He was able to dispose of Marcus Davis and he threw his hands against Goulet, which is what we were all waiting for him to do. Knocking out Goulet isn't the biggest accomplishment, but he did things in that fight that we know he's capable of doing. Saunders will definitely be fighting the best opponent he has ever fought when he fights against Swick. Swick has much more experience against better competition both at 170 and 185. Saunders is a pretty big guy for 170 but Swick fought at 185 for a long time, so I don't see it being too much of an issue. I'm not sure if Swick has fought many guys who have actually had more reach than him, though, so maybe it'll be a bigger issue than I'm giving it credit for. Either way, I expect a good fight and I expect to see a new contender emerge at 170 after this fight.

People always bring up Swick's speed when they talk about him. I really don't see speed being the difference here. I actually expect a bit more of a slower and more methodical fight for both guys. I think they'll show each other a good amount of respect and that will show in the fight. I won't be surprised if either guy tries to take the other one down at certain points in this fight. Everyone is talking about this fight like it's gonna turn into a striking war...I don't think that will happen. I've been wrong many times and I could be wrong this time, but I expect this to look a bit more like Swick's fight with Marcus Davis. We haven't really seen either guy tested too much on the ground. Okami was able to do some damage to Swick on the ground so Saunders could try to take advantage of that. I expect Swick to be a bit smarter on the feet, a bit more slick in what he throws. Swick should be able to control the striking and keep Saunders guessing. Saunders telegraphs almost everything he throws. He throws hard and he throws wide, but his other opponents couldn't take advantage of that. He threw the same body-kick at Ryan Thomas about 327 times, but Thomas never really caught on. He used about 987 knees against Wolff, but Wolff didn't have the skills to defend and adjust. I believe Swick has the skills to adjust to the situation. If Saunders throws strikes and telegraphs them over and over again, Swick will take advantage. I see Swick catching Saunders while he's throwing a wide and telegraphed kick, and end his night in the process.

Marcus Davis vs. Dan Hardy

This is another tough one to call. Both are very good strikers, different styles, but both are good. Hardy is more of an all around kickboxing stylist while Davis is more of a boxer who has added some kicks to his game. It should be interesting to see how they plan to shut each other down. There's been a lot of talking going on between these two, so that adds a bit more drama to this. I'm sure the thought of losing is much worse now than it was originally. Davis really hasn't been able to step out of the gatekeeper type of role yet. Beating Swick was his chance to do so, but he ended up losing that one. Davis has been the overseas fighter who fights all the locals, and as soon as he fought someone good he lost. So I'm really not sure how good Davis really is. He gets a lot of hype sometimes but I'm really not sure it's deserved. I will say Hardy is much better than most of the other European guys that Davis was put in there with. There's a lot of fights on this card that are being billed as wars and awesome fights...I don't think that will be the case. I don't think the fights will be bad, but they won't be amazing either. Dan Hardy

I believe that will also be the case with this fight. There's been a lot of talk and both guys say they hate each other and they wanna kill each other, but I don't expect that type of mindset once the fight starts. I expect both guys to respect the other and fight smart.

Davis has the power in this one, but he seems to have problems finding a home for his power lately. Davis talks his boxing skills up a lot but his boxing isn't what wins him fights in many of his matches. When he fought Lytle I actually thought it was Davis' kicking game that ended up making the difference in that fight. Davis didn't look like he wanted to plant his feet and throw bombs in that fight. I'm really not sure if Davis' boxing advantage will actually be much of an advantage because of all this. Hardy is better at placing his kicks in my mind. Hardy is really good at keeping guys away with his inside leg kick, and if Davis can't get in close range he can't win the fight. Davis isn't exactly a rangy guy who can stay on the outside, he needs to get on the inside to win. Hardy will make it very hard for Davis to get on the inside and Hardy will already be the longer fighter I believe. Hardy is also pretty slick in his movement, he knows how to stay away from danger. Davis stays on the outside a bit too much sometimes, he waits too long. That was the problem when he fought Swick and even Lytle. He beat Lytle in a close decision, but I think he could have made it a bit more definitive if he changed his game up a bit. Davis always has the chance to land his big power punch, but he hasn't really shown that to me lately, and Hardy has never really been hurt. I really just think Hardy is a bad fight for Davis. He has the perfect style of kicking to keep Davis away, and his hands are good enough to land some good punches. I don't think Hardy will be able to finish Davis, though. Davis got kicked in the neck against Paul Taylor and still managed to come back...he's a tough guy.

Caol Uno vs. Spencer Fisher

I expect this to be the best fight on the card and I also believe this is the most evenly matched fight on the card. Spencer Fisher might be one of the most versatile strikers in the game. This guy throws everything... punches, kicks, knees, elbows, he does it all. Opponents have to be very careful when they stay on the feet with Fisher. Uno is a true veteran of the game. He's fought everywhere and has fought for many years. It would be hard to find a guy who has this much experience. Uno is a very solid striker in his own right. He has never really shown to be a devastating striker who knocks people out if he puts his hands on them, but he knows what he's doing out there. His footwork and overall movement is very intelligent. Uno is pretty much able to get himself out of serious danger on the feet by using good movement. That doesn't always guarantee the win, but it gives him more chances to win instead of getting knocked out. I think Uno is the more well rounded fighter between the two, Spencer has shown some holes in his wrestling game. That could end up being the difference in a close fight like this. Uno has been away from the cage for a long time but I'm sure he'll be ready for the challenge. He didn't get easy fights in his other UFC appearances and he isn't getting one now. This could very well turn into fight of the night.

I think the difference in this fight will be the wrestling. A lot of people seem to be writing Uno off in this fight and I don't get why. Fisher is a very good striker but Uno has the ability to put him on his back. Look at Spencer's fight with Hermes Franca as an example of what the fear of a takedown can do to a great striker. Hermes Franca should never finish someone like Spencer with strikes, but Franca did just that because he was able to take Spencer down a few times and put the takedown in his mind. Hermes is also far from the best wrestler but he was able to take Spencer down a few times. I know one thing for sure in this fight, and that's that Spencer's weak point is his wrestling. Uno isn't the best wrestler out there but he has enough to get the job done, and he's also really good at drawing guys in and shooting when they come forward. Uno is good enough at striking to make the other guy feel comfortable on his feet, but then he can take you down once you get comfortable. This is a guy who was able to take BJ Penn down quite a few times. Spencer could always catch him and knock him out, which wouldn't surprise me much because Uno can be knocked out, but I think it's more likely that Uno takes Spencer down a few times and gets dominant position on the ground. Uno has more than enough skills on the feet to hang in there with Spencer. I think Spencer has the tools to hang with Uno on the ground, but he doesn't have the skills to actually win off his back. Spencer has shown a lot of skills off his back but I would be shocked if he submitted Uno. BJ Penn and Shinya Aoki both had Uno in some bad spots on the ground and neither one of them could finish them. It wouldn't shock me if Spencer won by knockout, but it would definitely shock me if he got the submission. All in all, I just see Uno doing enough on the feet to not get hurt and I see him getting takedowns that will sway the fight in his favor.

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Mustapha Al-Turk

Mirko Cro Cop will be returning to the octagon at UFC 99. He said he would come back one day but I'm not sure many actually thought he would. He'll take on the former Cage Rage champion, Mustapha Al-Turk. This will be one of those striker against grappler matchups, whoever imposes their game will win. Al-Turk has good ground and pound and he's good with his submissions, but his takedowns aren't great. We saw Kongo pretty much shut Al-Turk down when Al-Turk couldn't get him down. I believe Cro Cop actually has better takedown defense than Kongo. He has definitely shown better defense in the past, we'll see if he still has it. Cro Cop hasn't looked amazing in his last few outings but he still has devastating striking skills. The big weakness in Cro Cop in the UFC seems to be the octagon itself. The ring is much smaller and makes it easier to cut people off and corner them, while in the octagon guys can just circle all day and get out of danger much easier. We saw how much trouble Cro Cop had in cutting off Eddie Sanchez in his first UFC fight, and Sanchez isn't exactly the best fighter in the world. The other problem is the clinch tactics against the cage, and that's another problem we saw Cro Cop have against Kongo. Cro Cop has been training in the cage for awhile now so maybe he's adjusted by now, but we won't know until he sees it. Either way it seems like Cro Cop is just a bad matchup for Al-Turk. Most guys take Cro Cop down from the clinch and Al-Turk is a guy who shoots in, he doesn't take people down from the clinch. Cro Cop is one of the best at defending against takedown shots. Even if Al-Turk does get the takedown I don't see him being able to do much. Cro Cop is very good at maintaining guard and defending, so at best Al-Turk could steal wrong. Nothing is impossible and Gonzaga showed us that, but I think this is just a fight made for Cro Cop. I believe Cro Cop picks him apart and finishes this one in the first, we might even see a headkick.